Political Analysis: Trump’s Personality and His Approach to the Palestine Issue

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By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.

Trump’s narcissistic personality, driven by a relentless desire for achievement and shaped by an impulsive, “profit-focused” mentality, views the Zionist project through a blend of evangelical Christian beliefs and US strategic interests within an imperialist framework. While this stance could bolster Netanyahu and his policies, Trump’s unpredictable and pragmatic approach may also exert pressure on the Israeli government, potentially creating tensions around conflicting priorities and challenges in achieving desired outcomes.

Trump’s Personality:

Trump, elected the 47th president of the United States, will enter the White House with a decisive victory, having secured the necessary electoral seats, with more than three-million-vote lead at the national level, and gained support in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This strong mandate will bolster his ability to advance his agenda and recover from his loss in the 2020 election.

Understanding Trump’s personality is crucial in shaping US policy in the coming years, despite the strong institutional framework of the state system. His personality inherently seeks to impose itself and its vision, often disregarding institutional processes. Our analysis of his personality draws from his political behavior, his tenure in government (2016–2020), and various published works, such as Professor Dan Mark Adams’ book The Strange Case of Donald J. Trump: A Psychological Reckoning and Bob Woodward’s book Fear: Trump in the White House, which offer valuable insights into his character. The following are the most prominent traits of his personality:

1. Narcissism: There is almost unanimous agreement that he is a narcissist who sees himself as “the most beautiful thing in the universe,” believes he is perfect, knows and understands everything, views himself as the “savior” of America, always claims victory, and refuses to admit failure.

2. His behavior is unpredictable, driven by a lack of a clear, organized intellectual framework to guide his decision-making. Characterized by impulsiveness and even recklessness in foreign relations, he often bases his actions on incomplete readings and erroneous information. This unpredictability led influential American Zionist billionaire Haim Saban to support Kamala Harris, fearing that the individual in question might change his behavior at any moment. According to Saban, his animosity toward Netanyahu could escalate into a desire for revenge.

3. The merchant character: Defined by pragmatic behavior, driven by profit and loss calculations. He leverages his power to blackmail, manipulate and “squeeze” both opponents and even friends. Willing to embrace the role of a “greedy smart aleck” when necessary, he remains focused on achieving his goals. His success in running businesses and amassing a fortune of over six billion dollars bolsters his self-confidence and reinforces his belief in his abilities.

4. Evangelical Christianity: Trump’s religious inclinations, particularly those aligned with the prophecies of evangelical Christian groups regarding the gathering of Jews in Palestine, the return of Jesus Christ, the battle of Armageddon and the millennial era, significantly shape his support for Israel and its regional projects. His stance often overlooks key issues such as human rights, Palestinian self-determination and the two-state solution, etc. Much of his popularity is rooted in the evangelical Christian community, a powerful force within the Republican Party.

5. Achievement-Oriented Personality: This personality views itself as a historical figure, confident in its decisiveness and decision-making abilities. It prioritizes its own beliefs over others’ approval or disapproval, as long as it is convinced its actions are justified. This mindset led to significant decisions such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and attempting to impose the “Deal of the Century” plan…

6. The “Crisis” Personality: This type of personality thrives on creating, managing and living with crises. It often engages in risky behavior and brinkmanship, attempting to impose its will and expand its influence. While it may sometimes achieve its goals, this approach can provoke strong opposition and unintended consequences, which may hinder its success. Many forces resist such a mentality, possessing the power, strength and will to challenge it.

Expected Approach to the Palestine Issue:

Given Trump’s political experience, personal nature, and the general direction of the Republican Party along with his popular base, it is anticipated that his approach to the Palestine issue will feature the following key elements:

1. The Israeli Wars on Gaza and Lebanon: Trump has repeatedly urged Netanyahu to end the war on Gaza Strip (GS) before his presidential term begins on 20/1/2025. However, if Netanyahu remains bogged down in the conflict, Trump may offer more support to help bring it to a swift conclusion. He could continue this for some time, potentially months, but if the resistance proves effective and the war shows no signs of ending, Trump may pressure Netanyahu to cease hostilities to avoid further draining US resources and Israel’s military, economic, and human capital. A similar approach will likely apply to the war in Lebanon. As a staunch supporter of the Israeli occupation, Trump will be in a strong position to exert pressure, making it difficult for others to challenge his stance on Israel.

2. Further Judaization of al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem: Trump’s support will offer greater cover for Netanyahu and his coalition to advance the Judaization of al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem, escalating tensions and fueling anger in Arab and Muslim communities.

3. Trump is likely to seek to appease Netanyahu and his coalition by offering support, especially if the war on GS ends. This may include backing the annexation of large areas of the West Bank (WB), particularly Area C, which makes up 60% of WB. Such moves would increase pressure on WB residents and create conditions aimed at forcing their expulsion. This aligns with the goals of Religious Zionism, the policies of Likud, and the interests of evangelical Christianity.

The approach would effectively end the current form of the peace process, dismantle the Palestinian Authority, and potentially establish cantons and ghettos for Palestinians within WB.

The situation also fosters a volatile environment in WB and risks a clash with Jordan, which fears an influx of around two million Palestinians due to these plans. Additionally, Jordan is concerned about resettlement programs and alternative homeland proposals. This could put the Wadi Araba normalization treaty to the test, intensifying popular pressure in Jordan to cancel the treaty and support the resistance.

4. Trump will push for increased efforts to eliminate Hamas and the resistance movement, disarm Hamas in GS, prevent it from ruling either directly or indirectly, and impose Israeli-US standards in what is referred to as the post-war phase in GS.

5. Trump will harmonize with Netanyahu in his pursuit to impose a new security order in the region, as announced in October 2024. This approach would increase pressure on neighboring countries, particularly those in the strategic environment surrounding Israel, to conform to Israeli standards in managing their populations. These standards include combating “political Islam” and movements supporting armed resistance, suppressing expressions of religiosity and Islamic commitment, and curbing the remaining freedoms. Such policies would likely lead to conflicts between governments and their people.

6. Trump will exert more pressure on Iran, particularly in economic terms, aiming to isolate the country and weaken the “axis of resistance” to prevent it from offering effective support to the resistance in Palestine.

7. Trump will try to pressure Saudi Arabia into normalizing relations with Israel through a bartering process aimed at improving the living conditions of Palestinians under occupation. This could lead to some formal or superficial gains, or promises that Israel could later override or interpret at will.

8. Trump will support the Israeli government’s moves against UNRWA as a “terrorist entity” and will seek to write it off and abolish it at the international level.

Conclusion:

The above discussion suggests that Trump, particularly in the early phase of his term, may exacerbate tensions not only regarding the Palestine issue but also within the broader regional context. His pressure on Arab regimes could lead to increased submission to Israeli-Western hegemony, fueling frustration and anger among Arab populations and potentially accelerating conditions similar to those preceding the “Arab Spring.” Alternatively, the regimes may resist US pressure, especially concerning what they perceive as threats to national security or sources of social unrest, such as the annexation of WB, the displacement of Palestinians, and the proposals for naturalization of refugees or creating alternative homelands. This could lead to a rise in demands for greater freedoms, stronger support for resistance movements, and less adherence to normalization with Israel.

Moreover, the resilience of the resistance and its continued strong performance in GS, WB, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, along with the growing Iranian support, will intensify Israeli and US attrition. This will force Trump into two difficult choices: either engage in a regional war, leading the US into unwanted military and economic attrition, or pressure Israel to retreat, accept more realistic solutions, abandon unattainable goals, and temporarily concede to some of the resistance’s conditions.

Most importantly, this means that the continued resistance in its effective form will be crucial in thwarting Trump’s vision for managing the Palestine issue. It will also serve as the region’s first line of defense, preventing its entry into the “Israeli era.”