By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
The war of attrition in Gaza Strip (GS) is likely to persist for several months, with the resistance expected to maintain its qualitative performance despite immense sacrifices, relentless Israeli aggression, devastating massacres, widespread destruction and the constraints imposed by Arab and Muslim countries’ blockades.
This was one of the expectations highlighted during the panel discussion organized by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations on 27/11/2024, featuring an elite group of experts and specialists in Palestinian, Israeli, Arab and international affairs. Colleagues Ahmed el-Helah, Mueen Taher, Muhannad Mustafa, Ma’mun Abu Amer, Ziad Bheis, ‘Atef al-Joulani and Ibrahim Fraihat presented significant papers, complemented by insightful interventions and discussions from other participants. In this article, the author outlines several anticipated trajectories based on these discussions, the presented papers and his own analysis of the unfolding events.
GS is expected to face escalating challenges and risks in the coming months, particularly with the cessation of fighting on the northern Palestine front, which enables the Israeli government to focus more intensively on its operations in GS. Furthermore, the arrival of the Trump administration is likely to create a more favorable environment for Netanyahu to intensify the brutal assault on GS, at least during the administration’s initial months.
Netanyahu is expected to continue implementing The Generals’ Plan in the northern GS, aiming to empty it of Palestinians through tactics including starvation, massacres, displacement and destruction. Meanwhile, the resistance, despite its steadfastness and performance, faces challenges such as efforts to weaken popular support and provoke public dissent against it. Additionally, Arab and international political maneuvers will seek to forge agreements and deals that undermine the resistance’s achievements and nullify the value of its sacrifices. The Palestinian Authority (PA) may play a role in such arrangements, aligning to some extent with Israeli visions for Gaza’s future, which could include the disarmament of the resistance, the deployment of Arab and international forces to enforce Israeli conditions, the continued presence of Israeli forces in key areas, the creation of transfer and uninhabitable environments in GS, and a “modest” prisoner exchange deal.
In these circumstances, the resistance must persist in its strong fighting and war of attrition until Israel, along with its allies and collaborators, acknowledges that it cannot impose its conditions. At the same time, the resistance must intensify political efforts to bolster Palestinian national unity, strengthen its alliances with Arab, Muslim and foreign countries, and transform popular and humanitarian support into effective, action-driven programs that assist the resistance in confronting the Israeli occupation.
In the Israeli context, its society will remain dominated by the nationalist and religious right, which will foster a more hostile stance toward Palestinians and escalate Judaization efforts, particularly in Jerusalem and WB. However, Netanyahu’s failure to achieve his stated objectives in the GS, combined with the near completion of his targets, growing internal pressure to end the war, and negotiate a prisoner deal, alongside continued military and economic losses, rising international isolation and intensifying internal conflicts—particularly the struggle between “militantism” and “statism” and debates over Israel’s secular versus religious identity—will exacerbate both structural and real crises within Israeli society. These factors will foster more favorable conditions for the impact of resistance efforts.
With the rise of Trump and the most extremist Zionist government in Israel’s history, pressure to Judaize al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem and WB is expected to intensify. Following Israel’s failure to achieve its objectives in the GS war, Trump may seek to “compensate” Netanyahu by advancing plans for WB in exchange for a “compromise” deal that ends the GS war. The danger lies in Trump’s indifference to the two-state solution and the Oslo Accords, as well as his lack of concern regarding the annexation of Area C, which constitutes around 60% of WB. He also expresses no objection to the imposition of temporal and spatial division of al-Aqsa Mosque between Jews and Muslims, while sharing its sovereignty. This could lead to the practical dissolution of the PA in WB, an attempt to fragment the Palestinian population into six or seven cantons, and the establishment of conditions conducive to the expulsion of WB Palestinians. Such actions pose an existential threat to the PA and a serious risk to Jordan, both of which must prepare to confront these challenges. Furthermore, this scenario may trigger the conditions for a large-scale Intifadah in WB, as the PA disintegrates and Palestinians are left with no path forward except armed resistance.
Arab and Islamic weakness will persist, with the Arab policy of failure and siege towards GS and the resistance continuing in the coming months. Trump is likely to push for a new wave of Abraham Accords, exerting significant effort to include Saudi Arabia in the normalization process in exchange for “consolation prizes” related to the Palestine issue. The Qatari-Egyptian role in mediation and efforts to halt the war may diminish, giving way to a stronger Saudi influence. Meanwhile, Arab and international pressure may mount on the PA leadership in Ramallah, casting them in the role of the “male bee” to provide cover and legitimacy for the normalization agreements and the post-war arrangements for GS.
Following a strong and effective performance, and the cessation of direct military support for the resistance in GS from southern Lebanon, it is hoped that the military support from will continue from Yemen, Iraq and Iran. This shift takes place amid brutal Israeli aggression against Lebanon, backed by global powers, and is further shaped by Lebanon’s unique circumstances. However, Israel, US and their allies are likely to intensify efforts to neutralize the “axis of resistance,” using military, economic, and political pressure in their pursuit of isolating GS and ultimately sidelining the Palestine issue.
As for the international community, it is unlikely to alter its general stance it has maintained over the past few months regarding Operation al-Aqsa Flood, despite the global sympathy garnered, as well as the positions taken by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC). Although Israel is increasingly viewed as a pariah state, these factors have not deterred Israel from continuing its aggression against GS and the Palestinian people… This is due to the international community’s inability to take practical punitive measures against the occupation, as it continues to avoid direct confrontations with the US, which views Israel as a cornerstone of its policy in the Arab region.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 2/12/2024
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