Situation Assessment: The Impact of the Ukrainian Crisis on the Palestine Issue and the Available Options (Arabic)

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Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations has published a Situation Assessment prepared by Hossam Shaker under the title “The Impact of the Ukrainian Crisis on the Palestine Issue and the Available Options,” in Arabic.

This assessment seeks to anticipate the future of the Ukrainian crisis and its repercussions on the international parties and the balance of power, as well as the repercussions of this crisis on the Palestine issue and the available options.

Russia launched war on Ukraine on 24/2/2022 despite the preemptive attempt of deterrence by the US and Western countries. This caused a deep rift in Russia’s relations with Western countries and necessitated the imposition of an unprecedented package of sanctions on it. However, Moscow proved its readiness to take surprising moves in return, trying to use available pressure cards including threatening to resort to nuclear weapons. Thus, the post-Cold War era ended and the conflict between the international powers resumed after nearly a third of a century of the US’s undisputed global leadership.

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>>Situation Assessment: The Impact of the Ukrainian Crisis on the Palestine Issue and the Available Options (Arabic) (12 pages, 1.6 MB)
By: Hossam Shaker. (Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre).

The international interest in the Ukrainian crisis comes at the expense of the level of interest in other issues, including the Palestine issue, while avoiding the outbreak of other serious crises at this stage, especially in areas controlled by US allies.

However, the approaching month of Ramadan in April 2022, is likely to witness a Palestinian popular uprising similar to what happened in the same month of 2021. This will put the Israeli side before critical calculations in managing the field situation with the Palestinian people and will cause embarrassment to the US and its allies, who are busy mobilizing international positions against the invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

The developments of the Ukrainian crisis may impact some regional roles and balances, especially since this coincides with a Turkish political and diplomatic action; an increasing possibility of resuming the Iranian nuclear agreement and lifting US sanctions imposed on Tehran; and with the development of normalization between some Arab countries and Israel to become strategic partnership and alliances. There is also Israel’s contact with Moscow and Kyiv under the title of mediation and keenness to maintain relations with Russia and the understandings binding Israel-Russia concerning Syria or other files. However, the margin of Israeli open action with Moscow might become narrower should the US object to it.

The new international competition in a multipolar world would provide relatively better opportunities for the Palestine issue in the long run. Furthermore, in case Russia copes with the onslaught of sanctions and the isolation imposed on it, and if the power struggle between global powers in the region exacerbate, this would provide opportunities for the repositioning of regional parties. It would also provide the Palestine issue with a chance to escape from the chronic political impasse it witnessed under US domination of the “Middle East Peace Process” and the ensuing agreements and regulations. However, this will not be clear in the short term, as it is mainly related to the outcome of the current international crisis which is likely to witness more surprises, and the extent of its impact on the international and regional balance of power.

A Palestinian political will accompanied by a popular uprising or an Intifadah, and the readiness of the Palestinian resistance forces to intervene will be enough to re-impose the Palestine issue at the international level and to employ Washington and its allies’ keenness on calm, at this sensitive stage, to attain certain gains for the benefit of the Palestinian people and their issue. This could still be possible despite the weakness of the regional official environment supporting this potential Palestinian escalation, the reluctance of successive Israeli governments to show readiness for any serious political solution and the growing settlement building in Jerusalem and the West Bank.