By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
Perhaps the Israeli occupation found an opportunity to fulfill a recurring old dream during its aggression on Gaza Strip (GS), which is the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai.
Was Israel truly serious about it, or was it a way to raise the bar of war goals to the highest possible extent, to achieve what could be attained based on the battlefield outcome?
Or was it an expression of hysteria and madness after the decisive blow it received on October 7, 2023? For it wanted by its brutal and fierce attack, while taking advantage of Western and US cover, to achieve the best possible security situation for its settlers, especially in the Gaza envelope. This involved displacing as many people as possible from GS to establish a security buffer along the front lines with the territory.
Perhaps through this displacement, Israel also aimed to create a “second Nakbah” atmosphere for the Palestinian people, fostering an environment of defeat, frustration and despair among Palestinians, pushing them away from the armed resistance path.
On the other hand, the massive 2.3 million population of Gaza, living in 363 km2, makes the Strip one of the most densely populated areas in the world. This fact coupled with feelings of injustice, oppression, siege, poverty and suffering form a motivating environment for revolution and armed resistance against the Zionist project. The continued presence of this large number of Palestinians in GS keeps their hopes alive for the right of return, and this is a huge “nightmare” that the Israelis seek to erase and abolish.
Furthermore, the strategy of displacement aligns with the core of the Zionist project based on the idea of “a land without a people” and settler colonialism. In this concept, the settler colonizer replaces the indigenous population, making the idea of displacement inherent in Zionist ideology.
Old Projects Resurfacing:
The project to displace Palestinians of GS is not a new one; attempts to implement it have recurred over the past seventy years.
The first serious project to displace Palestinian refugees from Gaza to Sinai took place in the 1953–1955 period. It aimed to cultivate fifty thousand acres (about 210 km2) in northwest Sinai for the resettlement of refugees. On 14/10/1953, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) reached an agreement with the Egyptian government to provide the required land and ensure sufficient quantities of Nile River water for irrigation. The estimated number of Palestinians to be deported was around 60 thousand. However, the project faced widespread and vehement opposition from Gazan Palestinians who protested vehemently on 1/3/1955, against the settlement plan. These protests, which followed the Israeli attack on GS on 28/2/1955 and lasted for days, rejected the resettlement project, and demanded the training and arming of Palestinians, the establishment of a Palestinian national army, and the release of public freedoms. Eventually, the Egyptian government led by Gamal ‘Abdel Nasser agreed to cancel the project.
British documents indicate an Israeli project in 1971 to forcibly displace thousands of Palestinians from Gaza to the ‘Arish region in Sinai. The plan aimed to reduce the Gaza population by approximately one hundred thousand, prioritizing practical results over potential criticism. However, the project ultimately failed.
Among the prominent projects was the Giora Eiland project in 2010, the former director of Israel’s National Security Council. The project, titled “Regional Alternatives to the Two-State Solution,” was published by the Begin-Sadat Center (BESA) for Strategic Studies. The proposal called for Egypt to transfer a territory of 720 km2 to Gaza. This territory is a rectangle built from a rib of 24 km along the Mediterranean coast from Rafah westward toward al-‘Arish, and a rib stretching 30 km south. In exchange, Palestinians would relinquish an equivalent area in the West Bank (WB) for Jewish settlements. Egypt would be compensated with land in the southwestern Negev. The “Deal of the Century,” announced by President Trump in early 2020 under the title “Peace to Prosperity,” was not far from the Giora Eiland project.
During the current aggression on the GS, a leaked policy paper from the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence outlined three options for dealing with GS. It argued that the optimal choice to address security concerns and ensure the safety of settlers in the Gaza envelope was the forced displacement of the Gaza population. According to their analysis, the return of the Palestinian Authority was not entirely successful in maintaining security in WB, and the withdrawal model from the land also faced challenges. However, the document acknowledged significant difficulties in implementation, primarily due to Arab rejection, specifically from Egypt and Jordan, and potential negative international repercussions affecting “Israel’s legitimacy” and global image.
Where to?
There is a vast disparity between the Israeli planners’ aspirations and what they can achieve, as demonstrated by historical experiences. The resilience and resistance of the Palestinian people have thwarted many Israeli schemes and programs.
Despite the brutal massacres and forced displacement carried out by Israel, especially in northern GS, which led more than a third of the population to abandon their homes, creating a tremendous humanitarian crisis; the possibilities of displacement beyond the GS remain unlikely and diminish to the point of disappearing in the coming days.
The fundamental element in this matter is the Palestinian people in GS, insisting on holding onto their land and rejecting forced displacement. They refuse to leave GS except in the direction of returning to their homes from which they were expelled in 1948. This steadfastness constitutes the primary factor for the failure of such projects.
On the other hand, the Egyptian stance is a firm rejection of displacement and closing the borders to it, considering it a red line. The Jordanian position is even more rigid, fearing that Israeli appetite for displacement might extend towards relocating WB residents to Jordan.
Some indications have emerged of significant pressure exerted on the Egyptian side, accompanied by extensive economic incentives. While conflicting signals may have been captured from Egyptian leadership, the regime seems to have definitively decided to reject, not only because agreeing to displacement would undermine its “legitimacy” in the eyes of its people and the Arab nations for assisting in the resolution of the Palestine issue; but also because it is linked to Egyptian national security. Historically, the Egyptian regime has been the least accommodating among the surrounding countries regarding Palestinian refugees.
As for the US administration, who initially seemed enthusiastic about the idea of displacement, it retreated after witnessing Palestinian determination, Arab rejection and international opposition.
The idea of displacement, on the other hand, constitutes a war crime under the Geneva Convention, a core element of international humanitarian law, and the Statute of the International Criminal Court listed it as a crime against humanity. Regardless of the Israel’s arrogance and disregard for international law, the cost seems prohibitively high for its ability to carry out displacement beyond the GS.
The heroic resistance in the GS remains crucial, and indications suggest that the significant blows inflicted on the Israeli army will force it to retreat from many of its objectives, as its internal political, military, security and economic crises escalate, along with mounting international pressure and the waning Western cover for the aggression.
This all means that the displacement project will likely be shelved anew and consigned to the dustbin of history.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 26/12/2023
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