By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
Despite Trump’s perception of his own successes, his personality, ambitions and leadership style are fueling crises. The more the “aggrieved” resist, refuse to yield and collaborate to thwart him, the more opportunities arise for them, while his policies backfire, leading to performance failures, a decline in the US’s international standing, and escalating internal crises and conflicts.
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Whether admired or opposed, Trump has won the US presidential election, with his Republican Party securing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This gives him a free hand in leading the world’s (so far) superpower. He is assembling a presidential team and cabinet that, to say the least, is highly Zionist. One expert even noted that had Ben-Gvir been in charge, he could not have formed a more hawkish team!!
Driven by narcissism, evangelical Zionism, and a sense of superiority towards Arabs, Muslims and their political regimes, Trump will likely act as a “bulldozer” to resolve the conflict in favor of Israel. He will aim to impose his vision of sidelining the Palestine issue while enforcing Israeli hegemony and security standards across the region. However, aren’t there any opportunities on the horizon?!
Trump’s approach will fully expose the true nature of US colonialism and exploitation, revealing the religious and cultural biases that shape US decision-makers’ views on Israel and the conflict. It will demonstrate that the peace process and the two-state solution were mere illusions, designed to buy time for further Judaization of the land and people, while imposing new facts on the ground.
This full exposure will reveal the worst sides of US and Israeli decision-makers, deepening the region’s polarization. As the masks fall, all regimes and peoples will be forced to choose between submission and dignity. They will either reveal their worst or their best. This may provide an opportunity for resistance and change movements to attract those who now feel cornered, realizing there is no longer room for detachment or evasion of responsibility. In turn, the conditions for a new, explosive wave akin to the “Arab Spring” will become more imminent and achievable.
Second, Trump’s reluctance to engage in prolonged wars and bear their costs was evident in his expressed desire to Netanyahu to end the Gaza war before his presidency begins. Given Trump’s pragmatism, overconfidence and drive for quick results, if the war continues into his term, he will likely push for its swift conclusion by providing exceptional support to Netanyahu. However, should Netanyahu fail, as he has before, Trump may turn to more pragmatic solutions and pressure Netanyahu to end the war. With an unwavering ally in the US, known for his staunch support of hardline policies, Netanyahu will find it difficult to ignore Trump. Moreover, Israel’s increasingly strained domestic situation will only intensify the pressure on Netanyahu.
Third, Trump may provide the necessary cover for Israel to intensify efforts to Judaize al-Aqsa Mosque, including carving out sections or constructing a synagogue within its courtyards… among other projects. This poses a significant threat and crosses a red line, likely sparking widespread hostility toward the Zionist project and rallying further support for the resistance, which has already proven the justification of Operation al-Aqsa Flood.
Fourth, Trump may offer political cover for Israel to annex large parts of the West Bank (WB), particularly Area C, which makes up about 60% of WB. This could be accompanied by plans to confine Palestinians to ghettos and cantons, effectively dissolving the Palestinian Authority (PA) and eliminating any prospects for a settlement or a Palestinian state. The strategy seeks to create unbearable conditions in order to force the displacement of approximately two million Palestinians, a move driven by Israeli desires to push them into Jordan and beyond.
This threat may compel the PA, particularly those not aligned with the security policies serving the occupation, to reassess their position and engage in serious coordination with Hamas and other resistance groups to put the Palestinian home in order and confront the emerging dangers.
Jordan will view this threat as a serious challenge to its national security and a red line, particularly as it aligns with resettlement and alternative homeland projects. This could lead Jordan to adopt clearer, more decisive actions to counter these initiatives, including halting normalization and reassessing its relations with resistance forces to take a more active and determined stance.
Fifth, Trump’s international actions will likely provoke major global powers, particularly China, and fuel resistance from countries opposing a return to hegemony, arrogance and colonialism. His interactions with NATO allies and the European Union will also involve unpleasant and provocative pressures, such as demanding higher contributions to the NATO budget and creating conditions that benefit the US economy at the expense of others.
In this climate, Trump may leverage his power to impose certain conditions, but in doing so, he risks creating numerous enemies, with even his allies hesitant to support him. Countries that once aligned with the “soft US orbit” may be compelled to seek new alliances and international support in response to US arrogance. Meanwhile, major powers like China could exploit the vacuum, advocating for a new global order that diminishes US influence and contributes to its decline.
Sixth and lastly, Trump’s approach to imposing his vision on the identity of the US, its system of governance, and its social, demographic and cultural makeup… will exacerbate internal tensions, provoke conflicts, and fuel growing support for the idea of certain states seceding from the Union. This will weaken the US from within, creating increasingly unstable conditions.
Trump’s bets and extreme behavior are grounded in the belief that the “other” will submit and accept subjugation. However, what if the “other” possesses a strong sense of pride and dignity, a willingness to sacrifice and confront, and alternative options to consider?! This could provoke the “other” to channel its full energy into challenging and overturning Trump and his approach. The Palestinian, Arab, Muslim and international communities have a significant role to play, especially if they unite in opposition to him.
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While these opportunities remain potential rather than certain, the political climate could allow for the partial or full realization of some of them… However, there is a risk that some forces may prefer to acquiesce to Trump’s “storm,” viewing the opportunities as a “gamble” they cannot afford!! particularly in corrupt and authoritarian regimes that fear their own populations more than they fear Trump’s policies. Nonetheless, it is crucial to emphasize that Trump is not an unstoppable force of destiny. Our peoples possess immense potential, and his actions may, in fact, trigger more of an awakening than a subjugation, inspiring resistance and greater political engagement rather than submission.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 18/11/2024
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