By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
The latest developments suggest progress in the prisoner deal negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with Israel’s political and media landscape signaling a more determined push to finalize an agreement before Donald Trump assumes the US presidency on 20/1/2025. Prime Minister Netanyahu has granted his negotiating team in Doha expanded authority to secure a deal, and reports indicate that Mossad Chief David Barnea will join the delegation. Furthermore, Netanyahu’s meeting with cabinet members, including Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, signaled his intent to address both the potential benefits of the deal and the challenges posed by Religious Zionism’s objections.
US and Egyptian officials expressed optimism about an imminent prisoner deal, with US Secretary of State Blinken stating, “We are very close to hostage deal.” The arrival of Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, in Doha reinforced the perception that negotiations had advanced significantly, indicating that the US is actively working to resolve the remaining obstacles.
Also, Hamas’s acceptance of a list of 34 captives submitted by Israel for inclusion in the first phase of the swap signaled a positive step, suggesting that the group was inclined to proceed with the agreement.
The negotiations delved into specifics regarding the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each Israeli captive, categorizing them into prominent figures and those serving life sentences or shorter terms. Additionally, Israel insisted on deporting some of the released individuals, barring their return to the West Bank (WB) or Gaza Strip (GS).
Cautious Optimism Amid Significant Challenges:
However, it cannot be fully assured that the deal will be finalized before the start of Trump’s term, as significant gaps remain. Netanyahu has also repeatedly disrupted and undermined deals in recent months before they could be signed.
Netanyahu presents two major dilemmas in the proposed deal: first, a temporary truce rather than a permanent end to the war, and second, the continued Israeli occupation in certain areas of GS, such as northern Gaza, the Netzarim Corridor and the Salah al-Din (Philadelphi) Corridor. This undermines any potential for a comprehensive prisoner exchange. The resistance cannot accept that its fight, steadfastness, and sacrifices would result in either the continuation of the occupation or the ongoing aggression.
On the other hand, even if Netanyahu agrees to end the war and withdraw completely, he will likely pursue a gradual process, conditioned by guarantees that enable him to implement control mechanisms. These would include striking resistance figures and sites at his discretion, citing potential threats as justification. He will also attempt to impose varying degrees of siege measures, claiming the need to prevent weapons from reaching the resistance. Moreover, Netanyahu will intensify efforts to disarm the resistance and prevent Hamas from ruling GS, whether directly or indirectly.
Furthermore, Netanyahu’s political actions are driven by personal narcissism, a strong desire to retain power, and the fear of ending his career and facing potential imprisonment if he fails to meet his goals in the war on GS. He is likely to prolong the conflict as long as his objectives remain unfulfilled. Despite the brutal massacres and atrocities committed, along with the immense destruction in GS, Netanyahu has failed to crush Hamas or the resistance forces, which remain resilient and effective. Moreover, he has not succeeded in taking full control of GS, recovering the captives, implementing his vision for GS, or securing the settlements in the” Gaza Envelope.”
Therefore, Prime Minister Netanyahu is likely pursuing a partial prisoner swap agreement, which may involve a temporary truce lasting a few weeks or up to two to three months. This deal would include a partial withdrawal from certain areas of GS while maintaining a presence in others, facilitating the return of displaced persons to most parts of the territory, and permitting the entry of “reasonable” amounts of essential supplies for Gaza’s population.
Netanyahu will likely attempt to portray himself as having made every effort to secure a deal, aiming to present the appearance of thorough preparation ahead of Trump’s arrival. He will likely seek to shift blame onto Hamas for the failure to reach a final agreement.
This will offer him the justification to resume the war under Trump’s leadership and maintain his position as prime minister, while avoiding accountability for his failures on October 7 and in the GS war. It will also allow him to evade responsibility for the economic, military, security and human losses Israel has suffered, as well as for transforming the country into a global pariah.
Pressure for a Deal
The Israeli political environment has become increasingly receptive to the idea of a comprehensive agreement, even one that involves ending the war and a full withdrawal from GS. This shift is bolstered by strong support from the US, regional actors, and the international community, all of whom share a common interest in moving toward a resolution.
Senior Israeli army officials have reiterated the need for a political solution, with Channel 13 reporting that several of them saying that “the ground operation in the Gaza Strip has exhausted itself.” This suggests that the operations have fulfilled their objectives and are now devoid of further strategic value. Even Giora Eiland, the architect of the “generals’ plan” aimed at crushing and displacing the people of northern GS, has admitted that military action alone is insufficient. He emphasized that economic and political measures must also be pursued to address GS realistically. This view aligns with numerous admissions from military, security and political leaders, as well as specialized experts, acknowledging that eliminating Hamas and the resistance is unfeasible. These statements underscore the growing recognition of the need to reassess the strategy to end the war on GS.
Netanyahu’s calculations will continue to hinder a full agreement. As Israeli expert and writer Yossi Melman pointed out in Haaretz on 7/1/2025, “By now, it is clear to almost anybody following the conduct of Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that, whenever a breakthrough is achieved, he levies a new demand, to make things more difficult, thus nullifying any chance of making a deal.”
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Finally, the resistance is determined to end the war and alleviate the suffering of the people of GS by any means necessary. However, it will not accept rewarding Netanyahu and his army for their brutality, nor will the Palestinian people tolerate the continuation of the occupation and aggression. Furthermore, the resistance rejects any situation that places the will of the Palestinian people in Gaza at the mercy of the Israeli occupation’s whims. As long as the resistance persists, it will eventually compel Netanyahu and his team to concede to its core demands: the cessation of hostilities, full withdrawal of Israeli forces, the return of displaced persons, the reopening of crossings (at least to pre-October 7 levels), the facilitation of reconstruction, and an honorable prisoner exchange.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 11/1/2025
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