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By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.

It is a deal unlike any other in history!! It is exceedingly rare, if not unprecedented, for a major regional power—backed by global superpowers—to be compelled to accept the terms of an adversary it perceives as weak, exhausted, devastated, starving and besieged. From a logical standpoint, this adversary is deemed insignificant in both regional and international calculations, making the agreement all the more extraordinary. The Israeli army was expected to occupy the Gaza Strip (GS) within days, as it had done in just one or two days during the 1956 and 1967 wars, even when the Strip was under the control of the most powerful Arab state at the time (Egypt). However, despite Israel’s exponential development of its capabilities, while GS remained isolated and besieged for 17 years, and although Israel resorted to every means of brutality, destruction and massacre… the Gazan “boy” stood resilient, like a genie, enduring 471 days of legendary, awe-inspiring resistance, supported by a sacrificial, patient and steadfast popular base. This unwavering resistance drained and exhausted the Israeli army, ultimately forcing its government to submit to a dignified deal imposed by the resistance.

A Tense Deal and a Fragile Truce:

Israel has been coerced into accepting the deal and has agreed to implement its first phase. This includes the release of 1,904 prisoners from Israeli prisons, 296 of whom are serving life sentences, in exchange for the release of 33 Israeli captives. The deal also arranges for Israel’s withdrawal from most of GS, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes, and the opening of crossings to allow the entry of 600 trucks per day, along with 60 thousand caravans and 200 thousand tents. Furthermore, the reconstruction campaign will begin, while Hamas retains its weapons and control. Meanwhile, Israel’s political, military, security and popular circles are filled with bitterness and a deep sense of failure. The deal was “forced” not only because Trump pushed for its approval, but also because the ongoing state of attrition and the relentless quagmire in GS showed no end in sight. The US intervention served as a face-saving exit for Israel, offering a way to protect its image while shielding it from the arrogance and denial of its leadership, which risks further collapse and decline of the Zionist project. Both security and military authorities, along with opposition forces, supported the deal and a political solution, which was backed by a majority of Israeli society according to opinion polls.

Therefore, the deal remains “fragile,” because key figures in the current government still fail to grasp the lesson and refuse to come down from their position. They continue to believe that resuming the war may provide a chance to defeat the resistance. In their view, Gaza’s imposition of its terms is not only a signal of the impending collapse of the Zionist project, but also a sign of the downfall of its ideology and the end of its political life.

The fragility of the agreement is evident in Netanyahu’s follow-up statements, where he insists on crushing Hamas and preventing it from taking control of GS, even after the first phase of the agreement is implemented. In a verbal pledge to Smotrich, the leader of Religious Zionism and his government’s Finance Minister, Netanyahu committed that Israel will return to war to destroy Hamas, according to Smotrich himself. This comes as Smotrich threatens to withdraw from the government if the second phase of the agreement is carried out, which could cause the ruling coalition to lose its majority in the Knesset and potentially bring down the government. The withdrawal of Ben-Gvir and his party, The Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit), from the government, along with Ben-Gvir’s characterization of the agreement as both disastrous and a surrender to Hamas, reflects the oppression and anger felt by the extreme religious right.

Despite the general sense of failure to achieve the intended goals, the majority of Israelis, according to polls, support enforcing the deal. Nearly 60% favor continuing the negotiations and implementing the second phase of the agreement. However, 61% do not believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s promises to end Hamas rule in GS.

Hamas and the Post-War Challenges:

Hamas and the resistance forces emerged victorious in the clash of wills. Israel’s objectives—crushing and surrendering Hamas, occupying GS, freeing Israeli captives, determining the future of GS, and securing settlements in the Gaza envelope—were all thwarted. Additionally, plans for the displacement of Palestinians, the Generals’ Plan to empty the northern GS, and the schemes for Jewish settlement building within GS were also defeated. Hamas has secured an honorable prisoner exchange deal, along with an agreement to end the war and ensure a full Israeli withdrawal from GS. This achievement adds to the resistance’s success in dismantling Israel’s security theory and the concept of a safe haven for Zionist Jews in Palestine. It also restored the Palestine issue to the forefront of global issues, marking the downfall of the Israeli narrative and the rise of the Palestinian one. As a result, Israel has transformed into a pariah entity, while normalization programs have been disrupted. The success has inspired the Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims and humanity, showing that the Zionist project can indeed be defeated.

Moreover, Hamas continues to enjoy unprecedented popularity among the Palestinian people, both domestically and abroad. Despite the ongoing Israeli crimes and massacres, popular support for Hamas remains strong. The movement has successfully recruited thousands of fighters into Al-Qassam Brigades and has maintained uncontested control over GS.

Hamas, on the other hand, continues to face significant challenges in managing the post-implementation phase of the first stage of the deal.

The first challenge lies in the arrangements for administering GS the following day. The Palestinian Authority (PA) insists on unilaterally managing GS, risking confrontation with Hamas and resistance forces if it attempts to fulfill its commitments to Israel, such as preventing and disarming the resistance. This stance is compounded by its rejection of free and fair elections, knowing that the results would most likely favor Hamas and the resistance forces. It aligns with the overwhelming desires of Israel, Western powers, and Arab countries pursuing normalization, all of whom seek to prevent Hamas from ruling GS or participating in its governance, either directly or indirectly. However, despite their efforts, everyone acknowledges their inability to impose their will on Hamas over the past 18 years. Actually, Hamas has no issue reaching a national consensus on managing GS, even without necessarily being at the forefront of leadership. Hence, these parties seek to disarm the resistance, marginalize Hamas politically, and remove its cadres and supporters from official institutional structures in GS. In doing so, they aim to accomplish what Israel has failed to achieve through its wars and years of siege.

Israel, the US and its allies, and Arab normalization countries, supported by the PA, will seek to exert pressure and leverage against Hamas and resistance forces through the continuation of the blockade and the reconstruction process. The people of GS are in desperate need of essential supplies and reconstruction materials after nearly 90% of homes and infrastructure were destroyed or damaged. The cost of reconstruction exceeds $80 billion, according to international studies and estimates. Additionally, removing the rubble alone would require more than 1.3 million truckloads. In other words, it would take approximately ten years to complete if 200 trucks were used, each making two trips per day!!

Furthermore, the Israeli occupation, supported by US, may be aiming to replicate the conditions that led to Operation al-Aqsa Flood by advancing its agenda to Judaize the al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem and the West Bank (WB). As discussions intensify, there is growing concern that Trump, who disregards the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution, could provide cover for the annexation of Area C in WB, which constitutes more than 60% of its territory. The PA itself is threatened by the Zionist religious right’s vision of fragmenting Palestinian areas into several “cantons,” where Palestinian communities would be governed and policed under Israeli control.

As for the Axis of Resistance, it will not operate at full capacity as it did during its support of GS in Operation al-Aqsa Flood, particularly after the resistance’s ability in Lebanon to play its crucial and influential role has been hindered.

Also, Hamas and the resistance forces have suffered the loss of thousands of fighters and tens of thousands of wounded, along with many of their political, military and organizational leaders. They need time to reorganize their ranks, fill leadership positions, console the families of their fallen and wounded, address their needs and restore their military and material capabilities in a challenging environment that seeks to isolate them. In addition, Hamas and the resistance forces must conduct objective, in-depth reviews of their experience in order to benefit from it, chart a new course, improve their operations, and determine future directions.

Conclusion

We are currently facing a tense situation and a fragile truce, one that could potentially lead to a resumption of aggression in GS. However, the general sentiment favors halting the war and progressing with the next phases of the deal. On the Israeli side, there is a blend of bitterness and a tacit, objective acknowledgment that continuing the war against Gaza holds no purpose, and there is no prospect of defeating Hamas. According to the Israeli i24 News channel (17/1/2025), “Gaza is Hamas, the public supports it… There will be no Trumpian magic to change the situation.” As a result, the next phase may focus on intensifying pressure, using blackmail and siege tactics to undermine Hamas and the resistance’s gains in the second and third phases, while attempting to disarm, marginalize and separate them from their popular support.

All of this calls for preparing for the possibility of war and aggression, strengthening internal ranks, and aligning more closely with the Palestinian public and its concerns. It requires presenting open initiatives to foster national unity. The Palestinian people must be patient, wise and determined to redirect the national focus towards putting the Palestinian political house in order, working towards ending the occupation and liberating the land and holy sites.



Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 23/1/2025


The opinions expressed in all the publications and studies are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of al-Zaytouna Centre.


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