By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
Available information indicates that the West Bank (WB), including East Jerusalem, is likely to be the focus of Israeli targeting in the coming days. The plan to Judaize al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem and the wider WB has been ongoing for years, advancing steadily under the Likud government and escalating under Netanyahu’s administration, which is aligned with Religious Zionism. However, this trend could take more decisive directions under US influence, including the potential annexation of settlement blocs in WB and the risk of annexing Area C (or large parts of it), which makes up 60% of the territory. Such actions would undermine the peace process and the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) aspirations for statehood, potentially fragmenting PA territories into multiple cantons, with the PA governing Palestinian communities in WB on a security basis.
The Most Important Indications of the Targeting:
The key indications of the Israeli targeting and annexation project are as follows:
• Israel’s failure to achieve its goals in the Gaza Strip (GS), coupled with the resistance’s victory and ability to impose its conditions, has prompted Israel to seek compensation by securing a major achievement in WB. Following the truce with GS, the Israeli government expanded its war objectives to include tightening control over WB and eliminating the resistance. To this end, Israel deployed large military reinforcements and launched a broad and intense campaign to uproot the resistance.
• The groundwork for annexation has already been laid within the ruling Likud Party. On 31/12/2017, the party’s Central Committee voted to urge Knesset members to advocate for the annexation of WB. Prime Minister Netanyahu initially opposed such a vote, fearing it would prematurely expose the party’s ambitions and risk political fallout. However, in the Likud election platform of September 2019, Netanyahu endorsed the annexation of the Jordan Valley and northern Dead Sea—an area covering about 23% of WB. Despite this shift, annexation measures were delayed, particularly after Trump’s “Deal of the Century” was announced in early 2020, followed by his defeat in the November US elections. The situation further escalated with the Resistance’s 2021 “Sword of Jerusalem” Battle.
• The ruling coalition that formed on 29/12/2022, with the strong entry of Religious Zionism through the parties of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, granted them broad powers to accelerate the Judaization of al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem and WB. The project advanced rapidly and, had it not been for the Operation al-Aqsa Flood, large swathes of WB could have been annexed.
In 2022, the Religious Zionism Party adopted the “Decisive Plan” that Smotrich had previously proposed, which was ratified at the party’s general conference. The plan aims to resolve the conflict in historic Palestine and annex WB.
• Trump won the US presidential elections and is a strong proponent of Israeli expansionism. He has expressed that Israel’s territory is too small and should be expanded. Trump rejects the Oslo Accords, the current peace process, and the two-state solution. He moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israel’s annexation of the occupied Syrian Golan. His “Deal of the Century” plan already annexes significant portions of WB while leaving GS under Palestinian control.
It seems that Trump, who observed the Israeli army faltering in GS, pushed for a ceasefire and is reluctant to continue spending billions of dollars on the war, has no objection to providing cover for the subsequent annexation of large parts of WB by Israel. This could serve as compensation for Israel’s failure in Gaza and act as an incentive to extricate itself from the quagmire, advancing the Gaza ceasefire.
• Trump appointed hardline Zionist Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, who has criticized the Biden administration for not providing sufficient support to Israel. He condemned European countries for suspending or restricting arms exports to Israel and also opposed the Biden administration’s sanctions on settlers and settlement entities involved in violence against Palestinians in WB.
• Trump appointed Mike Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister and evangelical Christian leader, as the new U.S. ambassador to Israel. A strong advocate for the religious rights of Jews to Palestine, Huckabee asserts that Israel has a “title deed” to WB and refuses to call the settlements by that name, insisting that they be called “communities” or neighborhoods.
• Trump appointed Elise Stefanik as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, and she has openly stated that Israel has a biblical right to the entire WB.
• Under Trump, WB settlers received significant support, with an official delegation from the WB settlement umbrella group, the Yesha Council invited to his inauguration. The council also launched a billboard campaign in New York’s Times Square to congratulate him. One of Trump’s early decisions was to rescind sanctions imposed by the former Biden administration in 2024 on far-right Israeli settler groups and individuals accused of involvement in violence against Palestinians.
The indications mentioned above contribute to placing WB at the center of Israeli-US targeting, serving as a form of “compensation” for the failure in GS. This accelerates the systematic subjugation and annexation measures, including attempts to crush the resistance and its focal points. Efforts to subjugate the PA to Israeli standards aim to transform it into a security state focused on serving Israeli interests, potentially leading to its dismantling. At the same time, a climate of repression and displacement is being created for the people of WB, alongside significant advances in the Judaization and annexation of large areas. As Netanyahu stated in his congratulatory message to Trump after the latter’s inauguration, “I believe that working together again we will raise the US-Israel alliance to even greater heights.”
Despite the apparent rift between Trump and Netanyahu, which may stem from their handling of the GS war and the US reluctance to continue funding a war that seems futile, they appear to agree on WB, viewing it as a “fat ram” over which they have no disagreements.
The Possibility of Thwarting Annexation:
There are four challenges facing Israel and the US if they proceed with annexation in WB.
First: The annexation would effectively end the peace process as it currently exists, removing any justification for the continued existence of the PA. If this is coupled with restrictive measures and an atmosphere of displacement for the people of WB, it could lead to the collapse of the PA and trigger a large-scale Intifadah. In such a scenario, this may become the only viable option for the people of WB, potentially reversing the situation. The resistance could gain strength, and Israeli-US plans could ultimately fail.
Second: The dangers of annexation and displacement, particularly scenarios involving the forced displacement of two million Palestinians from WB, will directly threaten Jordan’s national security. This would position Jordan as a strong opponent of such actions, jeopardizing its strong relationship with the US and its normalization with Israel—both of which all parties will seek to avoid.
Third: One of Trump’s key objectives this term is for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. Any actions related to annexation, the collapse of the two-state solution, or the downfall of the PA could pose significant obstacles to this normalization effort. Just as Operation al-Aqsa Flood disrupted the momentum of Arab and Saudi normalization, an Intifadah in WB could similarly hinder the resumption of normalization with Saudi Arabia or any Arab country, something both sides will likely seek to avoid.
Fourth: The attempt to determine the fate of al-Aqsa Mosque in favor of “Zionist Jews” is a highly volatile issue, one that has historically sparked uprisings and revolutions among the Palestinian people, as well as galvanized the Arab and Muslim worlds. Operation al-Aqsa Flood serves as a current example of this ongoing tension.
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Finally, due to his narcissistic, unpredictable and volatile personality, Trump may be compelled to abandon his support for annexation if it interferes with his interests, reflecting his deal-making mentality and pragmatic approach. He is willing to shift positions, even tactically, to secure his goals, and may decide to halt the annexation process if it undermines more critical interests, considering it something that can be postponed temporarily. The resilience of the WB people and their potential uprising will be crucial in thwarting annexation and displacement plans. However, the Ramallah PA is once again invited to reassess its positions, which continue to hinder efforts to put the Palestinian house in order and achieve national unity. This includes its insistence on security coordination with Israel, which facilitates Israeli and US efforts to advance Judaization and settlement projects, potentially rendering the PA obsolete in their eyes.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 27/1/2025
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