By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
For many conservative Americans, Trump appears to be a “heroic savior” amid a deteriorating national situation, with his decisions and actions seen as essential to fulfilling his “Make America Great Again” slogan. Rather than the moody, erratic and provocative behavior his opponents claim, they view his actions as deliberate, methodical and purposeful. His nearly 200 presidential decisions and executive orders in the first few days of his second term reinforce this perception, showcasing his decisiveness, willingness to confront challenges and clear vision. To his supporters, he is the leader the United States desperately needs—someone unafraid to take responsibility for the consequences of his decisions. For them, the signs of internal deterioration in the US are increasingly evident, making it clear that addressing these issues through traditional, ineffective methods is bound to fail.
Trump adopts the “populist nationalism” school of international relations to counter the global decline of the US.
However, can Trump rise to the challenges and fulfill the role of a “savior,” or will he only deepen the decline of the US, both domestically and internationally?! Will the narcissistic real estate tycoon’s gambling mentality, which drives him to engage in political and financial blackmail, improve or worsen the situation?!
The US Predicament:
The US way of life is facing a host of serious issues, including increasing political polarization, with a growing divide between the far right and far left. Economic and financial disparities are widening, as the gap between the rich and poor continues to grow. Government debt has escalated to unmanageable levels, while immigration and refugee concerns are becoming more pressing. Racism and social tensions are on the rise, alongside an increasing inability of the middle class to afford healthcare, education and housing. Armed violence and crime are also on the rise.
This article will explore some examples, including how “white Americans,” particularly Protestant Christians, who see themselves as the primary driving force and backbone of US society and revival, believe that US identity is under threat. For example, in 1970, Christians in the US made up 85% of the population, with white Christians accounting for 80%. Today, only 62–65% identify as Christian, and this percentage is expected to drop to less than 50% by 2050. By 2025, “White” (non-Hispanic/ Latino) Christians comprised only about 40% of the population, with Protestants accounting for 30% of that total, a sharp drop from over 60% in the 1970s. Meanwhile, Catholics have remained at around 23% (due to the arrival of Hispanics), while those with no religious affiliation now make up about 30%.
In terms of racial distribution, in 1970, the (non-Hispanic/ Latino) whites made up about 85% of the US population, but by 2025, this percentage had dropped to around 57%. During the same period, the percentage of Hispanics/ Latinos increased from 5% to 20% (about 62 million), while the Black population grew from 11% to 13% (41 million). Asians saw an increase from less than 1% to 7% (19 million). As a result, “whites” may lose their majority in the next 20 years.
Therefore, it is no surprise that the battle for “identity” and the preservation of “white” dominance in the US have become central and existential issues for Trump and his supporters, who express the aspirations and fears, particularly within the white Protestant community.
On the other hand, the growing economic concern poses a major challenge to US decision-makers. The US federal debt has reached $36.22 trillion, about 125% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with net interest outlays totaling $892 billion in 2025. These outlays are expected to rise to $1.7 trillion by 2034. The increasing debt significantly impacts the government’s ability to fund essential programs and serve the US population, even in areas such as education, health, infrastructure and defense.
At the same time, the economic gap between the rich and poor in the US is widening. Just 1% of the population controls about one-third of the country’s total wealth, while 10% own 70%. In contrast, the poorest half of the population holds less than 3% of the total wealth, and 37 million Americans live below the poverty line. This growing disparity poses a serious threat to both economic and social stability. In addition, in 2020, the US recorded 21,570 homicides, one of the highest rates globally. Regarding US prisons, they are the largest in the world in terms of prisoner population, with approximately two million individuals incarcerated, representing 25% of the global prison population.!! The number of African American prisoners is four times that of white Americans. This highlights alarming indicators of class and social inequality, as well as the sense of injustice among Black Americans, while also fueling negative perceptions among some white Americans, who view other ethnicities and nationalities as burdens or sources of trouble.
The rise of China poses a significant concern for US policymakers in terms of economics, military power and technology. Since 2009, China’s global exports have surpassed those of the US, reaching approximately twice the value of US exports in 2022 ($3.6 trillion vs. $1.83 trillion). China’s nominal GDP is projected to match that of the US by 2034. However, in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), China’s GDP has already exceeded that of the US for the past decade, now being more than $6 trillion higher. Over the past 20 years, China has increased its military budget by approximately 800%, while the US military spending grew by just 65%. The development of hypersonic nuclear missiles, has made China a serious threat to the US. Moreover, in 2023, China surpassed the US in patent registrations, with around 921 thousand patents compared to roughly 315 thousand for the US.
The growing international influence of BRICS (China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa) presents an additional challenge to the US as its global standing declines.
Trump’s Policies:
Trump and his team believe that restoring the greatness of the US and overcoming its decline requires:
1. Ending inefficiency in the US administrative and executive system, cutting costs, and ensuring rapid decision-making.
2. Protecting the white majority, particularly Protestants, by implementing measures to curb immigration and asylum from other minorities, while striving for cultural homogeneity in US society.
3. Protecting the family and “conservative values” in society, including opposing abortion and restricting the influence of homosexual and lesbian communities.
4. Laws should serve the interests of the majority, not minorities. Foreigners (i.e., immigrant minorities) should assimilate into the “white Christian” culture, rather than impose multiculturalism.
5. The foreign policy adopts a “populist nationalist” approach, prioritizing US sovereignty. It emphasizes economic protectionism, questions the value of international organizations, opposes globalization and free trade, and rejects large military commitments. The policy focuses on domestic national priorities and private interests in a competitive environment. Besides, it combines elements of both the “realist” and “isolationist” schools of thought in US foreign policy.
6. Trump and his team believe that global power should rest with the powerful, as they are the ones competing and negotiating to shape the future. Smaller players, in contrast, must adapt within the limited space available to them. The powerful nations, however, often disregard values and international law, applying a “Social Darwinism” approach based on the concept of survival of the fittest and strongest. Accordingly, Trump believes he has the right to control areas he deems strategic to US interests, such as Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. He sees no issue with displacing Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, even if it jeopardizes the national security of US allies like Egypt and Jordan.
bTrump and his team seek to minimize US international political, military, economic and moral burdens while pursuing its high interests and efforts to restore its cohesion and prestige. They also aim to shift the cost of US actions onto allies and partners, often relying on methods rooted in “capitalist greed” and political and financial coercion. This is done hastily, using available pressure tools to maximize financial gain at the lowest possible cost. The example of Ukraine stands out starkly.
Will Trump’s Policies Work?
Trump faces a highly challenging situation in achieving his goals, with the available data offering little encouragement. However, for him and his supporters, it is worth attempting and “gambling” against the inevitable decline many foresee.
The US predicament lies in the fact that Trump’s impulsive desires often exceed his actual capacity to execute them. His approach often mirrors that of a businessman focused on securing quick gains, regardless of the means.
While his policies may yield some short-term gains, they are likely to result in strategic losses over the medium and long term, potentially deepening the US predicament. This situation could worsen in the following ways:
1. Trump’s approach to “running the world” effectively dismantles the post-World War II global order and the role of international institutions, removing legal and moral foundations from international relations. While this may give him more room to maneuver, it also opens the door for rising and aspiring powers, currently constrained by the existing world order, to compete, advance their own interests and impose their will. At that point, the US will no longer be able to rely on any rational, value-based or institutional logic, opening a “Pandora’s box” of risks and weakening its ability to maintain a central role in global governance.
2. Trump’s policies are pushing US allies, friends and those under US influence to become more self-reliant, thereby reducing or eliminating their dependence on the US. As a result, they would be strengthening ties with rising powers like China and seeking new sources of weapons. In the medium and long term, these shifts will weaken US military, economic and political influence, diminishing its ability to exert financial and political pressure, and ultimately, its standing in the international community will decline.
3. Trump’s policies, whether he likes it or not, are paving the way for China and other rising international powers to fill the vacuum and strengthen their economic, military and political competitiveness.
4. The decline of the US as the world’s leading investment magnet stems from Trump administration policies that undermine confidence in US credibility and its free investment environment.
5. In response to US protectionist measures, import taxes and duties, other countries will implement similar actions, raising taxes on US exports. This will increase the cost of these exports, erode their competitive advantage, and allow these countries to recover a significant portion of the losses incurred due to Trump’s policies.
6. Many countries, including the BRICS and others, will increasingly seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar for global trade. The impact will be amplified if European or oil-producing countries follow suit, weakening the dollar’s influence in the global economy.
7. Trump’s domestic policies are weakening US institutional structures and fueling the desire of states like California and Texas to secede, even if only in the long term.
8. Trump’s policies of maintaining the dominance of “whites,” particularly Protestants, and arbitrarily imposing his socio-cultural model will escalate internal conflict, deepen social and class divisions, and heighten tensions among ethnic and religious minorities. This escalation will undermine several foundational principles on which the US was built—as a land of freedom and multiculturalism that, for over 200 years, has served as a melting pot for assimilated immigrants who contribute their potential and ingenuity with a genuine sense of loyalty and belonging to their new homeland.
9. Trump is not inclined toward military intervention or wars, especially given that the US is currently in no position to engage in large-scale direct military action. While he has the ability to impose punitive measures that can harm many countries, his capacity to maintain pressure is limited if these nations continue defying his policies… Moreover, he is unlikely to go beyond economic measures, and most countries are likely to overcome their crises in the medium to long term.
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In conclusion, Trump’s policy is likely to result in a significant loss in the medium and long term. It will intensify the US political predicament, further erode its global standing, and weaken internal cohesion. Many of Trump’s threats stem from inflated assessments of power and the fabrication of an artificial atmosphere of pressure in his “gambling” strategy.
Most likely, the world’s powerful countries will seek to absorb and adapt to Trump’s impulses rather than confront him directly. They will play “chess,” maneuvering him into a corner of losses and forcing him to pay the price.
* The article was originally titled “Trump and Addressing the US Predicament,” but the editorial team at Aljazeera.net chose to publish it under the title above.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 13/3/2025
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