Political Analysis: Israeli Escalation in Syria

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By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.

Israel’s unchecked ambition to dominate its strategic environment has become increasingly evident in recent months, particularly through its continued aggression against Lebanon, even after the truce with Hizbullah on 27/11/2024. This extends to its actions in Syria, especially following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as it seeks to impose a new security equation in both countries.

Netanyahu and his team’s approach reveals an unprecedented level of arrogance and the imposition of will by brute force. At the same time, it exposes the deep anxiety, fear and turmoil of Israel’s ruling class, leading to a loss of equilibrium and the absence of clear criteria for managing interests and priorities. This reflects the dominance of an oppressive, authoritarian mindset over a strategic approach that once sought to frame the Zionist project within normalization and peace process paths. Such mismanagement has prompted numerous warnings from Israeli politicians, military and security officials over the past 18 months about the disastrous consequences of Netanyahu’s policies. Most recently, 17 former heads of the Mossad, Shin Bet, military intelligence, army and police issued a joint statement, published as an open declaration in Hebrew newspapers, warning that Netanyahu is leading Israel toward disaster, jeopardizing its security, and steering it toward authoritarianism…

The Israeli military and security campaign aligns with Netanyahu’s vision, which he outlined on 7/10/2024, marking the one-year anniversary of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. Renaming the war from “Iron Swords” to “War of Revival,” he emphasized a security doctrine designed to ensure Israel’s long-term stability and dominance, not only in occupied Palestine but throughout the surrounding strategic region.

The Israeli escalation against Syria aims to:

• Destroy the country’s strategic weapons, such as air defense systems and long-range missiles, in order to render it incapable of defending itself and to keep it under Israel’s “striking hand.”

• Establish a buffer zone in southwestern Syria, along the lines of contact with the Israel, extending through the Hauran regions toward Suweida.

• Prevent the new Syrian regime from becoming stable and independent, while also hindering any potential Syrian revival, which Israel perceives as an existential threat.

• Divide the country by overthrowing the ruling regime, encouraging minority groups to rebel or secede, and promoting sectarian and ethnic fragmentation.

• Limit Turkish influence in Syria and to safeguard Israel’s security dominance.

• Drag the new Syrian regime into a premature and asymmetrical battle in an effort to topple it, while simultaneously fostering favorable conditions for secessionist movements among various sects and minorities.

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Since 8/12/2024, Israel has struck hundreds of targets in Syria and gradually expanded its occupation of areas adjacent to the Golan Heights. One of the most recent incursions saw Israeli forces advance 15 kilometers into the city of Nawa, in western Daraa Governorate, with hundreds of troops from the 890th Paratrooper Battalion and the 74th Armored Battalion of the Golan Brigade. However, they were met with unexpected armed resistance from local residents, resulting in the killing of ten Syrian individuals. The incursion ignited widespread public outrage, as thousands turned out for the funerals, chanting “With spirit and blood we support you, al-Aqsa,” while calls for resistance grew louder. These developments indicate that the policy of subjugation has backfired, instead galvanizing resistance and strengthening the will to confront the aggression.

Netanyahu’s aggressive and arrogant mentality blinds him to the realities of the situation. The belief that “what cannot be achieved by force can be achieved by more force” does not apply to the Muslim Arab region. Anyone who thinks this does not understand the region’s faith, heritage, identity or history. They fail to recognize (or choose not to acknowledge) that efforts to subjugate by force only serve to fuel revolution, resistance and explosions of defiance. Expanding security theory to the broader strategic environment will only revolutionize the people, broaden the struggle against the Zionist project, and accelerate the arrival of a new wave of “Arab Spring.” The Israeli comparison to the behavior of corrupt, tyrannical Arab regimes is misguided. What is truly unfolding is part of the divine “luring” of the Zionist project, pushing it to expand and exert its might, ultimately reaching its “peak.” This is happening within the context of Allah’s laws of the Universe concerning tyrants and oppressors. The region is now set for broader confrontations, where Israel will be the biggest loser.

As Bashir Nafi‘ stated, Israel’s loss in Syria carries significant strategic weight, which cannot be offset by tactical attacks on isolated locations. Another Syria is being born and rising again.