By: Mohamed Thabet Hassanein.
(Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre).
How will international transformations and US-Chinese rivalry affect the future of the Palestine issue through 2035?
A new academic paper issued by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, entitled “The Future of the Palestine Issue between the American Vision and Chinese Initiatives: Scenarios for 2030,” and prepared by researcher Mohamed Thabet Hassanein, examines the future of the Palestine issue in light of the geopolitical fluidity witnessed in the Middle East during the period 2030–2035, and the competition between the traditional American vision supporting Israel and Chinese economic and diplomatic initiatives seeking to balance American influence in the region.
The study adopted a strategic foresight methodology through two analytical tools: MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to a Classification), which was used to identify driving and dependent variables, and MACTOR (Actors, Objectives and Power Relations Method), which was used to map the balance of power and levels of convergence and conflict among the actors influencing the future of the Palestine issue.
The results of the MICMAC analysis demonstrated that US-Chinese rivalry represents the strongest driving variable, followed by the ambitions of regional powers, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Türkiye, and then the Belt and Road Initiative and the decline of the American security umbrella. It also demonstrated that the two-state solution, settlements, youth, and displacement are dependent variables that move according to the will of major players.
The results of the MACTOR analysis revealed that the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel are the most prominent actors, while the Palestinian Authority ranked last in terms of strategic strength. The study noted that the resistance movements, foremost among them Hamas and Islamic Jihad, possess significant strategic weight and the ability to exert influence despite their limited resources.
Based on the analysis results, the study developed four scenarios for the future of the Palestine issue over the 2030–2035 horizon. The “modified status quo” scenario, based on the continuation of the current situation with some modifications, was identified as the most likely scenario, with a probability of 55%, followed by the “comprehensive regional conflict” scenario at 25%, and the “multipolar repositioning” scenario at 15%, while the probability of the “major multilateral settlement” scenario ranged between 10% to 15%.
The study concluded that the Palestine issue is no longer merely a local or regional issue, but has become an essential component of the international conflict, and that its real opportunities are increasing in a multipolar environment. It also demonstrated that internal division weakens the Palestinian negotiating position and makes it more vulnerable to external pressures.
The study recommended achieving reconciliation among the Palestinian factions and formulating a unified national strategy, building smart alliances with Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China, while maintaining a negotiating distance from all parties. It also called for educating and training youth in the fields of technology and artificial intelligence, utilizing the Belt and Road Initiative to support internal capacities, and preparing to deal with the various possible scenarios.
| Click here to download: >> Academic Paper: The Future of the Palestine Issue between the American Vision and Chinese Initiatives: Scenarios for 2030 … Mohamed Thabet Hassanein (Arabic)  (46 pages, 1.4 MB) |
Leave A Comment