By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
Hamas’s “goodwill” gesture-releasing American-Israeli dual national Edan Alexander, a combat soldier in Israel’s Golani Brigade—proved insufficient. It did not even secure the entry of essential supplies into the Gaza Strip (GS) to ease the severe famine deliberately imposed by the Israel, let alone contribute to ending the war and Israeli massacres. While US officials welcomed the move and leveraged it to boost Trump’s popularity at home and to foster a positive atmosphere for his visits to several Gulf states, the gesture failed to produce tangible results. Whether due to Israeli intransigence or a lack of serious US pressure on Israel, the war and bloodshed continued—with US-made weapons. This, even at the height of Gulf Arab celebration and hospitality toward Trump, who secured over three trillion dollars from the wealth of our Arab nation during his visit. In the end, the hemorrhaging of our wealth did nothing to stop the hemorrhaging of our blood.
The US took a half-step forward by reactivating the negotiation process over GS. They pushed the Israeli delegation to attend talks in Qatar, where US officials Steve Witkoff and Adam Boehler-both overseeing the negotiations file—met directly with Hamas leaders. However, Netanyahu escalated the situation in GS, announcing the targeting of Muhammad al-Sinwar, Hamas’s military commander in the Strip, and Abu ‘Ubaida, spokesperson for the Al-Qassam Brigades. He also intensified the massacres, effectively undermining any serious effort to reach a deal or bring the war to an end. Netanyahu showed little concern about portraying Trump and his team as “ineffective,” nor about embarrassing Arab normalizers or advocates of the peace process. In this context, the breakthrough meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the lifting of sanctions on Syria stood in stark contrast to the complete inability to deliver even symbolic relief to GS.
Netanyahu’s overriding priority appears to be preserving his ruling coalition, whose survival, particularly that of the religious Zionist faction, depends on the continuation of the war on GS. He also relies on this coalition to push forward critical decisions, including appointing a new head of the Shabak, selecting a government advisor, and restructuring the judiciary. At the same time, he seeks to evade any obligations related to his ongoing trials or accountability for the events of 7 October 2023. Consequently, under current circumstances, the political cost of pursuing a settlement and ending the war seems, from Netanyahu’s perspective, heavier than the steep military, economic, human and political costs of continuing it.
Time does not necessarily favor Netanyahu. Although he may have benefited from American backing and the US belief that striking a deal now would preserve Hamas and resistance forces in GS, thwart displacement plans and undermine American-Israeli visions for the post-conflict phase aimed at disarming the resistance and sidelining Hamas politically and institutionally; there is clear recognition that Trump and his team are driven by “Evangelical Christian” Zionist views that disregard Palestinian rights to their land and holy sites, support annexation and displacement, and dismiss international law and humanitarian principles.
Meanwhile, Trump’s pragmatism, transactional approach, “America First” agenda, volatile nature, and preference for swift results, combined with his differing priorities and belief that he better serves Israel’s interests than Netanyahu’s hardline government, alongside the perception that Netanyahu’s conduct obstructs regional normalization, increases his international isolation, and turns Israel into a global pariah state and a costly political, military and financial burden for the US… all this steadily undermines Netanyahu’s ability to rely on USS support. Moreover, most of Israel’s European allies have also distanced themselves from Netanyahu and withdrawn their backing for his ongoing war on GS.
Trump often seems to engage in a kind of “role-swapping” with Netanyahu, adjusting his rhetoric according to the developments on the ground and the practical demands of his regional objectives. This modulation is designed to maintain a political discourse that avoids embarrassing US allies in normalization efforts or those under the US umbrella. However, his overt narcissism and condescending view of the region and its leaders sometimes push him to express views that align with his “Evangelical Christian” worldview. For example, in his statement in Abu Dhabi on 15/5/2025, he reiterated the US desire to control GS, acting according to his own vision without regard for the Palestinian people, their land, history, cause, inalienable rights or hundreds of international resolutions. At the same time, Trump continues to present himself as a “peacemaker,” a Nobel Peace Prize candidate, and an anti-war leader who refuses to fund wars for his allies. This position, however, is inconsistent, as he supports the genocide in GS, backs the displacement of the Palestinian people, and remains silent on the crime of causing mass starvation in GS.
In conclusion, Netanyahu may be gambling on prolonging the war to achieve his objectives, but his options are rapidly shrinking. The sustained steadfastness and effective performance of the resistance, mounting Israeli domestic pressure to end the war, now approaching 70%, the absence of international support, the looming exhaustion of US backing, and the ongoing internal erosion of his government…, all suggest one outcome: sooner or later, he will run out of options and be forced to back down and accept a deal in which the resistance imposes its core terms.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 19/5/2025
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