Dr. Said El-Haj: Anticipated Trajectories of Influential Arab and Muslim Countries (Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) in 2024
Prof. Dr. Talal ‘Atrissi: Anticipated Trajectories of the Resistance Axis (Iran, Hizbullah, Syria, Iraq and Yemen) in 2024
Anticipated Trajectories of Arab and Islamic approaches to the Palestine issue in 2024
Dr. Said El-Haj anticipated potential roles for Turkey in post-war reconstruction and relief efforts. Turkey maintains its proposal to serve as one of the guarantor countries in Gaza Strip (GS) following the cessation of hostilities. However, during the conflict, he does not anticipate any significant shift in Turkey’s politically sympathetic stance toward the Palestinian people, without increasing pressure on Israel, while sustaining its political and economic relations.
As for expectations concerning Egypt, it is unlikely that Egypt’s stance on the war will change in 2024. Egypt is anticipated to play a significant role in the post-war phase, particularly in the reconstruction process. El-Haj expects Egypt to adhere to its traditional policy of maintaining relations with Israel, potentially opening the Rafah crossing only within pre-existing agreements with Israel and the US. Additionally, Egypt is expected to continue to oversee the Palestinian reconciliation process.
These insights were shared during a seminar titled “Anticipated Trajectories of the Palestine Issue in 2024 in Light of Operation al-Aqsa Flood,” organized by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, on 24/1/2024, with the participation of numerous experts in Palestinian affairs.
El-Haj envisions Qatar continuing its role as a mediator in prisoner exchanges, ceasefire agreements, and offering substantial financial and relief support to GS. Qatar is expected to sustain its active media presence, notably through Aljazeera, expressing solidarity with the resistance and capturing the sentiments of the Arab public. Additionally, Qatar will strive to uphold strong relations with the US, positioning itself as a trusted mediator while hosting Hamas leaders, actively engaging in regional politics.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, El-Haj anticipates a deceleration in the peacel process with Israel. The country is likely to refrain from participating in any initiatives until the final outcomes of the war on GS become clear. Saudi Arabia is expected to adhere to the traditional policies advocated by Mohammed bin Salman, emphasizing pragmatic elements in dealing with the Palestine issue.
Regarding Jordan, El-Haj expects the country to persist in its traditional policies toward Israel and US. There may be occasional adjustments to the political stance to align with popular pressures, with attempts to accommodate and absorb these pressures. The likelihood of Jordan opening up to Hamas and resistance forces depends on the effectiveness of the resistance in repelling aggression on the Strip and establishing itself as a more potent force in the Palestinian reality.
On a different note, Prof. Dr. Talal ‘Atrissi foresees the development of the resistance axis within the framework of the Palestine liberation strategy. He suggests that if Hamas achieves victory in Operation al-Aqsa Flood, the entire resistance axis will be considered triumphant. ‘Atrissi underscores that the unity of fronts, once a mere threat, has transformed into a serious and real force after Operation al-Aqsa Flood, marking a significant shift in the conflict with Israel, unprecedented since 1973.
‘Atrissi further highlights that Operation al-Aqsa Flood has exposed the extent of US and Western intervention and support for Israel. Therefore, the resistance axis must consider this when enhancing cooperation and coordination among its factions. He points out the notable role of the Yemeni front in providing significant support for the Palestinian resistance during Operation al-Aqsa Flood, urging the resistance to factor this into shaping its strategic vision.
This paper was presented in a seminar, moderated by Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh, that included eight papers and discussed the anticipated trajectories in 2024 related to Palestinian, Israeli, Arab, Islamic and international affairs.
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