Ziad Ibhais: Anticipated Trajectories of the Conditions in Jerusalem in 2024
Anticipated Trajectories of the Conditions in Jerusalem and al-Aqsa Mosque in 2024
An expert in Jerusalem affairs forecasts heightened aggression towards al-Aqsa mosque, increased efforts to Judaize the area, a stronger religious aspect to the conflict, and more frequent confrontations
Expert in Jerusalem Affairs Ziad Ibhais anticipates Israel to retaliate for events of 7/10/2023, through policies targeting al-Aqsa mosque and Jerusalem. He foresees clashes at the beginning of the upcoming Ramadan on 11/3/2024, regarding prayer and pilgrimages to al-Aqsa from Jerusalem, the West Bank and the 1948 occupied territories. This will open the door to continuing previous confrontations with even greater intensity. He also anticipates renewed attempts to finalize the displacement of Sheikh Jarrah and seven threatened neighborhoods in Silwan, along with Wadi al-Joz as part of the “New Silicon Valley” project.
These insights were shared during a seminar titled “Anticipated Trajectories of the Palestine Issue in 2024 in Light of Operation al-Aqsa Flood,” organized by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, on 24/1/2024, with the participation of numerous experts in Palestinian affairs.
Concerning settlement expansion, Ibhais noted that Israel is working to strengthen Jerusalem’s identity by increasing settlement activity in the city center and determining its eastern borders. This could lead to settlement expansion in three main directions: entering the Old City through Christian properties, controlling remaining major real estate areas, and focusing efforts on Beit Hanina and Shu‘afat.
The crisis at the Industrial Secondary School (JISS)/ Arab Orphan Committee (AOC), where the administration in Amman struggles to respond, may escalate into a major issue. Additionally, there may be renewed efforts to decide the fate of the Jerusalem wilderness towards Ma‘ale Adumim, including a new attempt to relocate Khan al-Ahmar.
Ibhais suggests that Operation al-Aqsa Flood could change the demographics of Israel, where secular Zionists may leave coastal areas while settlers remain, leading to a demographic shift similar to Jerusalem’s current makeup, with more religious representation. This indicates that the Jerusalem situation may become more heated, but less economically productive and more reliant on external aid.
This paper was presented in a seminar, moderated by Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh, that included eight papers and discussed the anticipated trajectories in 2024 related to Palestinian, Israeli, Arab, Islamic and international affairs.
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