Prof. Dr. Walid ‘Abd al-Hay: Anticipated Trajectories of the Possible International Stances on the Palestine Issue in 2024:
The Palestinian International Scene in 2024: Promising Opportunities and Significant Challenges
The International Court of Justice supports Palestine, US internal turmoil reflects on the region, more political pressure on Israel, and Palestinians blackmailed on support and reconstruction issues
International affairs expert Prof. Dr. Walid ‘Abd al-Hay anticipated that the likelihood of voting in favor of Palestine in the genocide case at the International Court of Justice would not be less than 9 to 10 votes, without ruling out the US exerting maximum pressure. He stated that the Palestinian side would face extortion regarding the funds needed for reconstructing what Israel destroyed in Gaza after the fighting stops. Political blackmail will characterize this issue since 82% of financial aid to Palestine comes from countries not supporting the political stance of armed Palestinian resistance. These countries will try to link aid to politically pressing conditions on the resistance’s positions.
‘Abd al-Hay emphasized that Operation al-Aqsa Flood had a profound impact on Israel’s image in the international public opinion. He believed this positive shift would continue, and Israeli-African relations are likely to become more tense. Only one African non-Arab country, Liberia, voted against the recent resolution in the General Assembly in December 2023.
These insights were shared during a seminar titled “Anticipated Trajectories of the Palestine Issue in 2024 in Light of Operation al-Aqsa Flood,” organized by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, on 24/1/2024, with the participation of numerous experts in Palestinian affairs.
‘Abd al-Hay also added that the US policy in 2024 would experience some internal turmoil, driven by the continued annual decline in individual income since Biden took office, widening class gaps, a $121 billion increase in military spending between 2020 and 2024, and a US rise to 134th place in the Global Peace Index in 2024 from 83rd in 2008/2009, indicating worsening conditions. Additionally, electoral competitions are likely to center mainly around Trump and Biden, with Biden expected to win (based on Allan Lichtman’s model for prediction a winner). However, this does not preclude possibilities of increased divisions within the Democratic party’s base and elite.
‘Abd al-Hay stated that all of this would reflect on the burdens of the US role in the Middle East, thus worrying many Israeli leaders. He believed that US pressure towards Arab-Israeli normalization aims to reduce US involvement in cycles of violence in the Middle East, leading US to exert more pressure on Arabs to normalize to achieve some points that alleviate the negative aspects mentioned.
‘Abd al-Hay confirmed that the increasing international adoption of the two-state solution would put Israel in a state of confusion. If it accepts the two-state solution, violent disruptions instigated by settlers in the West Bank, along with the religious right, may occur. If it rejects it, it will face a dilemma in dealing with the international community from this angle. Therefore, it is likely, in his opinion, that Israel will accept the general framework of the solution, then try to empty it of its content, as it previously dealt with the Oslo Accords, then revert to dealing with Oslo.
This paper was presented in a seminar, moderated by Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh, that included eight papers and discussed the anticipated trajectories in 2024 related to Palestinian, Israeli, Arab, Islamic and international affairs.