By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
With the conclusion of the first phase of the ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner release agreement between Israel and the resistance, Israel’s opportunistic behavior comes as no surprise, as it is a recurring pattern in its dealings with the Palestinian side and the broader Arab region.
Israel blatantly violated the ceasefire agreement by closing the crossings and blocking the entry of goods, despite its obligation at the end of the first phase to continue negotiations and keep the crossings open to finalize arrangements for the second and third phases.
Netanyahu’s goal of closing the crossings and disrupting the deal is to:
1. Blackmail the Palestinian resistance and increase pressure on it to extract gains beyond those stipulated in the agreed deal, particularly at a time when the people of the Gaza Strip (GS) are struggling to recover and secure basic necessities.
2. Maintain the cohesion of the Israeli government, as Netanyahu fears its collapse due to Smotrich’s threat to withdraw if the government proceeds with the deal’s second phase.
3. Capitalize on US cover, which disregards agreements and conventions, seemingly ahead of the Israeli side in proposing ideas for the expropriation of GS and the displacement of its inhabitants. Furthermore, Netanyahu’s goal is to leverage ideas put forth by Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, regarding the release of Hamas prisoners, using this as a means to exert further pressure on the resistance.
4. Attempt to regain the initiative in the media and psychological warfare with the resistance, aiming to present a hardline discourse to the domestic public following the resistance’s media success during the prisoner exchanges. Efforts are being made to imply that developments in Israel, including strategic repositioning, preparations and arrangements, signal a potential resumption of the war on GS. This is especially emphasized in light of the appointment of new Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, the reshuffling of key leadership positions, and the forthcoming results of investigations into the October 7, 2023 events. These moves aim to convey the message that this time, Israel is poised to decisively resolve the war.
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The Israeli experience in dealing with the Palestinian Authority and the Arab side will likely offer little in its approach to the resistance. The resistance has demonstrated remarkable resilience over 18 years of siege and five wars on GS, sacrificing tens of thousands of martyrs, including its leaders, without wavering from its goals. The Israeli “artifice” will not succeed in dealing with the resistance, especially given the presence of international guarantors in the signed agreement. As such, the resistance’s steadfast position is supported by both strong Palestinian legitimacy and solid backing.
Does this mean that Netanyahu will resort to war?!
Not necessarily. The information at his disposal may lead him to use tactical blackmail, but not to plunge into another war. After enduring 471 days of brutal war, during which every imaginable method of destruction was used, Netanyahu ultimately reached this deal. There is nothing on the horizon to suggest that he would seek a similar war with better results. Moreover, the general sentiment among the Israeli public is against further conflict and favors moving forward with the second phase of the agreement.
Yes, there is frustration on the Israeli side due to its failure to achieve its war objectives, with Hamas regaining its stronghold in GS and immediately addressing the “day after” question… However, the Israeli military establishment recognized more than seven months before the war’s end that it had reached the limits of its capabilities and had exhausted its resources… It also paid a heavy price in “lost time” until the political leadership was convinced to sign the deal… As a result, the rhetoric of war remains a tactical maneuver.
It’s true that Netanyahu fears Smotrich’s potential withdrawal from the government and the collapse of his coalition, yet with Knesset elections just months away (about 8 months), this move may not have a significant impact. Moreover, parts of the opposition are willing to provide a safety net to ensure the government can proceed with the second phase of the agreement, thereby preventing its downfall.
Trump’s recent threats against the resistance, including demands for the immediate release of all prisoners and the expulsion of Hamas leaders from GS or facing “hell,” must be understood in light of his personal nature and governing style…Trump embodies the pragmatism of an opportunistic trader, often displaying a narcissistic and superior attitude towards others. His fickle and unpredictable nature drives him to shift positions quickly, motivated by a desire for speed and a reluctance to engage in war. For instance, he previously threatened the resistance with the release of prisoners at a set time, yet when there was no response, he took no further action.
Furthermore, Trump has defied US “taboos” for nearly thirty years, engaging in direct talks with Hamas over the release of US prisoners. He both supports and contradicts himself by advocating for the peace process and normalization, while simultaneously endorsing the annexation of parts of the West Bank, displacing the people of GS, and threatening the national security of Arab countries.
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Hamas has made it clear that it will not be blackmailed and does not fear threats from Netanyahu or Trump. It supports enforcing the agreement but is unafraid of war if it is imposed. Hamas also asserts that Trump’s threats should (logically) be directed at those who are disrupting the agreement and refusing to implement it (the Israeli side), not at those who are adhering to it.
The Israeli dilemma lies in the fact that Hamas still holds the prisoner card, while Israel, having failed to secure the release of any of its hostages throughout this bitter war, will face further failure if it attempts to do so again.
As a result, Israel may continue to play the game of pressure, blackmail and delays. However, the resistance will ultimately force Israel to honor the agreement.
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 11/3/2025
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