By: Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh.
Netanyahu may have calculated that he possesses the strength to turn the war on Gaza Strip (GS) into an opportunity, not just to reshape the future of the Strip, but to redefine the security landscape of the region in a way that secures Israel’s long-term safety and stability. However, these calculations overlook the “strategic trap” he is creating for himself, his hardline government and the state. This trap threatens to drag Israel into a prolonged conflict that could erode its resources and undermine the very foundations of its survival.
Despite Netanyahu’s failure to achieve any of the declared objectives in the GS war, he expanded the war to Lebanon in mid-September 2024, introducing a new goal: the return of approximately 100 thousand Israelis displaced from northern Palestine due to Hizbullah’s strikes. Achieving this objective necessitates a military campaign to compel Hizbullah to meet Israeli demands. Subsequently, on the one-year anniversary of Operation al-Aqsa Flood (7/10/2024), Israel declared its intention to reshape the security landscape of the region, portraying the war as existential and renaming it the “War of Revival.” This rebranding by Netanyahu sought to infuse the war with religious significance and emotional Zionist fervor, as if signaling the start of a new phase in what he had initially believed would be a short war lasting only weeks or months.
The Lure of Power:
Netanyahu appears to be tempted to expand his war objectives. Israel’s overwhelming superiority in military and intelligence capabilities, along with strong backing from the US and Western allies, bolsters this temptation. The presence of a cooperative Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank (WB), coordinating with Israel against resistance efforts, further strengthens this position. Additionally, the official Arab and Islamic environment, largely unable or unwilling to support the resistance, is preoccupied with internal repression. Several regimes within this environment even engage with Israel and are hostile to the resistance. Moreover, Israel’s tactical “achievements”—notably, the assassination of numerous resistance leaders and the decimation of thousands of political, military and security cadres—have fostered a sense of arrogance. Israel has employed all means, including morally questionable tactics, resulting in the killing of tens of thousands of civilians, the displacement of over two million Palestinians within GS, and over a million Lebanese in Lebanon, as well as the large-scale destruction of homes and infrastructure.
Netanyahu and his government have recently escalated their demands and conditions in their ongoing war on Lebanon. The objective is no longer merely to return settlers to their homes in northern Palestine; Israel is now demanding Hizbullah’s withdrawal beyond the armistice lines, north of the Awali River or the Litani. Additionally, they seek the disarmament of Hizbullah and guarantees to prevent the group from repositioning in the border villages. On 21/10/2024, the Israeli news website Walla! published a proposed Israeli document of principles, in which Israel demands that its military “be allowed to carry out ‘active enforcement’ to make sure that Hezbollah does not rearm, and does not rebuild its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel,” and seeks “freedom of action for the Air Force in Lebanon’s airspace.” The document also calls for the activation of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL forces to control the border and prevent armed groups from operating there. In essence, these measures would infringe upon Lebanon’s sovereignty, potentially subjecting parts of its territory to Israeli control and dominance. This proposal is an effort to impose a military defeat on Hizbullah, isolate the group from supporting Palestinian resistance, and undermine UN Resolution 1701, which serves as the basis for the ceasefire according to the Lebanese government’s commitment. Practically, this amounts to a continuation of the war, as neither Hizbullah nor the Lebanese state is likely to accept such conditions.
As for shaping the security reality in the region, it involves Israel imposing its security standards, especially in the strategic environment surrounding Palestine, notably the neighboring countries. Furthermore, Israel will likely seek additional guarantees, even from countries with formal normalization agreements, to protect its interests. Moreover, this could result in greater interference in the internal affairs of regional states to suppress and target “political Islam” movements, including figures and entities that support Palestinian resistance. This interference could extend to fighting opposition to Israel’s Judaization programs of al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem, and the rest of Palestine, and to oppressing the Palestinian people by confiscating their lands and placing them under conditions that may force migration from occupied Palestine. Additionally, the ultimate goal may be the eradication of the Palestine issue altogether. These pressures, driven by Israel and the US, could exacerbate internal crises between governments and citizens in the region.
Furthermore, Netanyahu might push for US involvement in a confrontation with Iran, which could escalate into a broader regional war, serving Israel’s agenda.
A Gamble That Leads to a Strategic Trap:
What occurs when, based on human assessments of resources, you possess all the necessary components for victory and the achievement of your objectives, yet, despite securing tactical successes, you fail to realize your overarching strategic goals?
In practice, you will find that your available resources, tactical successes and power dynamics will compel you to continue investing your “capital” to achieve your perceived goals.
The scenario resembles that of a bully who usurps the rights of others, only to be caught off guard when a smaller boy delivers a punch that knocks him down, causing him to lose his composure and be humiliated in front of onlookers… In response, the bully seeks to restore his status by retaliating against the boy, aiming to crush him and set a harsh example. However, what if the boy, despite enduring severe blows… surprises the bully and everyone around him with his fighting spirit and resilience? What if he continues to rise, persistently challenging the bully and proving his ability to endure?!
The bully faces a choice: either concede to the boy’s terms or continue the challenge. Because the bully fails to recognize that the boy has set the conditions, he falls into a “gambler’s mentality,” hastily doubling down and depleting his resources and potential. This mindset, characterized by denial, an escape from reality, and an inability to interpret the objective data reflecting his failures, compels him to persist. Ultimately, this behavior leads to his exhaustion and weakening, culminating in a collapse, or he may be forced by the circumstances to acknowledge the new reality and retreat under the boy’s blows. This dynamic mirrors the struggle of Palestinian David against Israeli Goliath!!
The bully exemplifies the colonial powers that embody the arrogance of strength, only to become ensnared in a “strategic trap” due to their miscalculations. Historical examples include Napoleon and Hitler during their campaigns in Russia, the US presence in Vietnam, the French colonization of Algeria, and the Russian and US interventions in Afghanistan.
Why the Insistence?
The question arises: If Netanyahu has not achieved any of his stated objectives in the GS war and has failed miserably after more than 380 days, isn’t he less capable of achieving his goals in Lebanon or imposing his security vision on the region?! Why does he insist to expand the conflict?!!
The arrogance of power, combined with the evident failure to meet objectives in the GS war, seems to drive him to rush forward… and fabricate new tasks… He generates fresh justifications for maintaining his grip on power, extending timelines and creating new opportunities to achieve previously unfulfilled goals. In this process, he aims to persuade the Zionist settler groups of the necessity for his continued leadership and the existence of significant tasks that remain to be accomplished.
Conclusion:
The expectations are tied to the resistance’s ability to maintain its strong and effective performance, regardless of the sacrifices involved. This will lead to ongoing Israeli attrition, exacerbating the exhaustion of both the Israeli army and economy. Consequently, we may see an increase in reverse migration, heightened international isolation, and a deepening divide with the Arab world, ultimately jeopardizing normalization efforts. Israel risks falling into a “strategic trap” if it continues to “gamble” with its resources. Such actions could gradually reveal numerous weaknesses and vulnerabilities, thereby creating better opportunities for the resistance in the medium and long term. This would likely result in increased Israeli losses and accelerate the attrition process, compelling Israel to concede to the resistance’s terms.
The momentum driving this situation is the continued strong military performance of the resistance in GS, particularly following the assassination of Sinwar. Meanwhile, Hizbullah and the resistance in Lebanon have recalibrated their strategies, enhancing their operational effectiveness in northern and central Palestine, leading to a significant increase in the number of displaced Israeli settlers. This is all further bolstered by support from resistance movements in Yemen and Iraq.
In this war, the resistance has established the equation of attrition versus attrition, whereas Israel initially imposed its own attrition unilaterally on the land of Palestine, its people and its national identity while executing plans to dominate the region.
The Israeli arrogance is likely to result in significant suffering, casualties and destruction as it seeks to subjugate the region and enslave its peoples. However, the peoples have no choice but to persist in their resistance to secure their freedom and liberate their land and holy sites.
* This article title is as published by Aljazeera.net. The original title of the article is “Netanyahu and the War of Revival: The Allure of Power or a Strategic Trap?”
Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, 26/10/2024
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