Dr. Mohanad Mustafa: Anticipated Trajectories of the Israeli Political and Military Behavior in 2024:
Critical Trajectories Await Israel in 2024
Israeli affairs expert expects the emergence of “Israel the Third” and an opposition victory in the upcoming elections, marked by an escalation in militaristic inclinations and worsening crises
Following Operation al-Aqsa Flood, on 7/10/2023 and Israeli aggression on Gaza, Dr. Mohanad Mustafa envisions the formation of “Israel the Third.” He observed that the fundamental question in “Israel the Third” would revolve around the state, rebuilding confidence in itself, and its ability to stabilize and persist. The search for capable “statesmen” with militaristic tendencies will be pivotal. “Israel the First” denotes the establishment in 1948, and “Israel the Second” followed the 1973 war.
On the domestic political front, Mustafa predicts the dissolution of the emergency government with the State Camp party’s departure, leading to new elections. An escalating protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected, resulting in the opposition winning the elections, and forming a government led by Benny Gantz.
Mustafa anticipates Netanyahu’s resignation from the Likud party and exit from politics. Constitutional changes initiated during his tenure will likely freeze, opening the way for new right-wing leaders like Yossi Cohen and Ron Dermer.
These insights were shared during a seminar titled “Anticipated Trajectories of the Palestine Issue in 2024 in Light of Operation al-Aqsa Flood,” organized by al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, on 24/1/2024, with the participation of numerous experts in Palestinian affairs.
Dr. Mohanad Mustafa also anticipates deepening divisions in Israeli society regarding Gaza’s political future and the two-state solution. An increase in militaristic tendencies, accompanied by racist trends, are expected. The secular-religious divide may worsen due to reduced privileges for the religious community.
Mustafa stated that Israel’s internal economic crisis will worsen due to the war’s impact on the economy. This will lead to a decline in living standards and a rise in the cost of living, especially with the high-tech sector shrinking. Meanwhile, government spending on the military and intelligence will increase, and an official inquiry committee into the failure of 7/10/2023 will be formed, fueling further divisions in the Israeli scene.
On a geopolitical level, Mustafa anticipated that the state of war with Gaza will continue, despite possible cessation of military operations, as Israel won’t achieve its objectives. He also expects escalating conflicts between Iran and Israel on different fronts, particularly in Syria. with Yemen becoming a priority for Israeli security, following its notable role in the Red Sea. Tensions will persist on the northern front, but without a full-scale war.
In terms of foreign policy, Mustafa anticipated renewed efforts for normalization with Arab countries under US influence if Israel’s government changes. However, he expected Israel’s international standing to decline due to its aggression on Gaza, straining relations with Russia and China.
Mustafa concluded that the outcomes of the war on Gaza would shape relations with Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. He doubted the success of US attempts to delineate Israel-Lebanon borders.
This paper was presented in a seminar, moderated by Prof. Dr. Mohsen Mohammad Saleh, that included eight papers and discussed the anticipated trajectories in 2024 related to Palestinian, Israeli, Arab, Islamic and international affairs.
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