By: Ibrahim ‘Abdul Karim.
(Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre).
This paper presents an analytical and documentary study aimed at mapping and understanding the landscape that Israel seeks to shape and consolidate in southern Syria. In this context, it examines Israel’s efforts to strengthen its control over the region and to exploit it in order to advance its strategic interests, both in the present and in the foreseeable future.
The study situates Israeli encroachment within its broader strategic environment and considers the biblical narratives that have historically underpinned its territorial claims. It further explores historical Zionist ambitions, patterns of land ownership, and settlement attempts in Hauran, as well as the occupation of the Golan, which constitutes a key step in Israel’s expansionist trajectory. Additionally, the paper addresses ongoing developments that illustrate the rapid pace at which Israel is seeking to establish a new reality in southern Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Specifically, Israel’s strategy has involved incursions into the buffer zone, the establishment of military bases, and participation in security arrangements under international sponsorship. Taken together, these developments underscore the potential emergence of significant geopolitical transformations in the region.
The significance of this paper, prepared by Ibrahim ‘Abdul Karim and published by Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations, lies in its documentation of the developments during the second phase of Israel’s expansionist project following the occupation of the Golan in 1967. At this juncture, Israel no longer limits itself to defending its borders; in doing so, it seeks to transform southern Syria into a zone of direct influence. This strategy threatens the territorial integrity of Syria and raises concerns regarding the potential emergence of a quasi-independent entity in al-Sweida under Israeli auspices.
The researcher noted that, in an effort to consolidate its influence in southern Syria, Israel established ten military bases spanning an area of approximately 400 km², extending from Mount Hermon in the north to the Dar‘a countryside in the south. Its movements were justified on security grounds aimed at preventing the positioning of Iranian forces, Hamas and Hizbullah near the border, while simultaneously invoking biblical narratives and historical ambitions in the Hauran region. The situation of the Druze community in al-Sweida was exploited as a leverage point, as Israel intervened militarily during the events of July 2025 against the Syrian army, subsequently offering suspicious “humanitarian assistance” in an attempt to incorporate al-Sweida into the “security framework” it seeks to impose.
‘Abdul Karim also noted that Israeli, Arab and international reports revealed a meeting held in Paris on 25/7/2025, which brought together Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and the Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, under the auspices of the US envoy for Syria Tom Barrack. Damascus confirmed that the meeting consisted of preliminary consultations aimed at reducing tensions and reopening channels of communication, while firmly rejecting any illegal foreign presence or the exploitation of any segment of Syrian society in divisive projects.
The paper concluded that Israel is advancing a dangerous project that has been repeatedly proposed, using its influence in southern Syria as a preliminary stage. No evidence suggests that it will refrain from moving to a new phase of its expansionist agenda. Moreover, Israel continues to exploit Syrian and regional conditions to diminish the influence of other powers in the south, relying on US support and invoking security and religious justifications. This establishes a new geopolitical reality in the region, potentially opening the door to broader tensions and placing the future of southern Syria in a precarious position, unless urgent Syrian, Arab and international measures are taken to curb Israeli overreach.
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