Political Insights (16): Prospects for a US Policy Shift on Direct Engagement with Hamas

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By: ‘Atef al-Joulani.[*]
(Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre).

In an unprecedented move, the administration of US President Donald Trump held its first direct official meeting with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Doha, Qatar, on 5/3/2025.

Trump’s Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler confirmed in a CNN interview on 9/3/2024, that he had received prior approval from President Trump to engage with Hamas. He emphasized, “We are not an agent of Israel; we have specific interests at play, and we did communicate back and forth.” He noted that the Israeli side had been briefed on the contacts with Hamas and added, “I think it was a very helpful meeting. It was very helpful to hear some back and forth.”

In an apparent attempt to reassure Israel, which was unsettled by the Trump administration’s direct engagement with Hamas, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the importance of Boehler’s talks, calling them “a one-off situation” that “hasn’t borne fruit.” Following mounting pressure from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government after Envoy Boehler described the Hamas leaders he met in Doha as “pretty nice guys,” Israeli and US media reported his dismissal from his mission. However, the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios, “Adam Boehler will continue to serve President Trump as a special government employee focused on hostage negotiations.”

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The Evolving US Position on Hamas

In 1997, the US designated Hamas as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization,” prohibiting any US citizen or resident from conducting business with those on the list. The US also exerted strong pressure on the European Union to place Hamas in the “list of groups and entities involved in terrorist acts,” a move that was delayed until 2001.

Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections and was tasked with forming the Palestinian government, which could have served as a justification for reconsidering the US position on engaging with the popularly elected movement. However, the US took a tough stance, imposing a strict blockade on the government and pressuring Palestinian factions to refrain from participating in it. It also enforced the “Quartet’s conditions” for dealing with any government that Hamas formed or participated in. In 2007, the US launched the Dayton Plan to undermine and ultimately overthrow the government.

Despite the continued US position rejecting official meetings or direct contact with Hamas, there have been several informal interactions with the movement. Most notably, former US President Jimmy Carter began meeting with Hamas leaders in 2008, continuing these meetings for several years thereafter.

Significance of the US Shift on Hamas

The direct meeting between US envoy Boehler and Hamas leaders had several important consequences, most notably:

1. The meetings marked a significant shift and breached a previous red line in the US stance on direct official communication with Hamas.

2. The meetings contribute to strengthening the political legitimacy of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance internationally, confirming its success in establishing itself as a key player in the Palestinian political equation that is difficult to ignore or bypass. They also challenge the continued feasibility of putting Hamas on “terrorist lists.”

3. The change in the US position encourages many European countries to open direct official channels with Hamas. Previously, the hardline US stance had been a major reason for these countries refraining from official communication, leading them to rely on indirect channels through non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

4. The meetings put additional pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, further widening the gap between his priorities and those of the Trump administration, which seeks quick political achievements.

5. The meetings raise the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) fears of losing its long-held monopoly on official communication with the US and European parties, a monopoly it has sought to preserve for decades to safeguard its role and political status.

Determinants of the Trump Administration’s Position on Hamas

The relationship between the two parties is likely to be shaped by several key determinants, the most important of which are:

1. Trump’s personal interests, including his relentless drive for success and quick results, his boldness in striking deals, and his willingness to make sharp shifts in the situation.

2. The Trump administration’s previous experience negotiating with parties on the US “terrorist list.” Notably, negotiations with the Taliban during Trump’s first term resulted in an agreement on 29/2/2020, for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021. The administration also addressed the fait accompli imposed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham after it overthrew the former Syrian regime, holding official meetings with the group’s leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

3. Trump’s strategy during his first term focused on de-escalating tensions and minimizing US involvement in military conflicts, with early indications of continuing this approach in his current term. He pressed for a ceasefire in Gaza Strip (GS) and exerted strong pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia.

4. Pressure from the Netanyahu government and members of the US Republican Party to maintain a rigid stance on the relationship with Hamas and avoid any openness to it.

5. The failure of Israeli war to defeat Hamas militarily or weaken its popular support, combined with the declining popularity of the PA. Furthermore, both Israeli and US efforts to find viable alternatives for managing GS without engaging with Hamas have failed. As a result, Hamas has firmly established itself as an unavoidable factor in any future arrangements for GS.

Conclusion

While the Trump administration’s openness to Hamas may be limited to a tactical move concerning the prisoner exchange, particularly involving those with US citizenship, it still holds significance and could evolve further if the administration deems it in its strategic interest.

Far from raising expectations, the Trump administration is likely to continue exerting pressure and imposing strict political and security conditions on Hamas and other resistance factions if they seek greater US openness and acceptance in the Palestinian political equation.

However, these conditions are difficult for Hamas and other factions to accept. Nonetheless, some European governments may seize the opportunity presented by the US stance to engage with Hamas, overcoming their previous reservations and opening communication channels with the movement in the near future.

Political Insights: A periodic series that provides brief and condensed political analyses and position assessments, issued by Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations.
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Al-Zaytouna Centre.