By: Sameh Singer.[*]
(Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre).
On 27/11/2024, Syrian opposition factions launched a large-scale attack on the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the western countryside of Aleppo, dubbed “Operation Deterrence of Aggression.” In just 12 days, they toppled the Assad regime and seized control of most of Syria, while al-Assad fled to Russia. The fall of the Assad regime and the rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa to power in Syria will undoubtedly have significant and direct repercussions on the Palestine issue.
| Click here to download: >> Academic Paper: The Fall of Assad in Syria and the Palestine Issue: Implications and Prospects … Sameh Singer  (24 pages, 1.6 MB) |
This paper examines and analyzes the social implications of the regime’s collapse on Palestinian refugees in Syria. Before the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, Palestinians in Syria enjoyed all the civil rights granted to Syrian citizens. However, with the onset of the revolution, their refugee camps (RCs) were targeted and bombed, leading to the deaths, disappearances and displacement of hundreds, while their legal status in the country was also diminished. After the fall of the Assad regime and the assumption of power by opposition factions, Palestinian RCs began to experience relative stability, particularly following the release of Palestinian detainees and the new Syrian administration’s efforts to facilitate the return of Palestinian refugees—both internally and externally—to their places of residence.
The paper addresses the political implications for the Palestinian factions and the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Syria, where their presence has fluctuated in response to political events in the region. Initially, the relationship between the Palestinian factions in Syria and the Assad regime was based on a shared political stance toward the axis of resistance. However, after the Syrian revolution in 2011, the regime set a new criterion for its relations with the factions, defined by their position on the crisis. This placed some factions in a difficult position, such as Hamas, which chose to leave Syria in January 2012.
After the fall of the Assad regime, the Palestinian factions received “assurances” from the “Military Operations Command” of the Syrian opposition that they would not be targeted. In response, the factions took a series of steps to demonstrate their commitment to neutrality, agreeing to form the “Joint Palestinian National Action Authority,” which includes all factions and the Palestine Liberation Army (PLA). This body was established as a unified national reference to serve the common Palestinian interests. Regarding the PA, it adopted a cautious stance toward the fall of the Assad regime. The paper concluded that the level of the relationship between the PA and the new Syrian regime would depend on two main factors: first, the position of the new Syrian regime on the Palestinian political scene in all its aspects, and second, the regional and Arab stances on the changes in Syria.
The paper discussed the military implications for the Axis of Resistance, highlighting concerns among many Palestinians that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria—along with the resulting decline in Iran’s influence in the region—has dealt a significant blow to both the Axis of Resistance and the Palestine issue. These concerns are compounded by the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which took effect in November 2024, making Gaza seem even more isolated. Moreover, Israel is seeking to capitalize on the situation in Syria to strengthen its control over the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and expand its presence in a larger buffer zone extending to the Jordanian border. On the other hand, some argue that the collapse of the Syrian regime could actually benefit the Palestine issue by fostering a stronger popular engagement with the issue.
The paper anticipates that the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of the opposition in Syria would have a positive impact on the social conditions of Palestinian refugees there, as well as on the political landscape of Palestinian resistance factions, particularly Hamas. This could lead to the reopening of Hamas’s offices in Syria and allow the group to better leverage the Syrian arena. However, since Syria remains in its transitional phase, it is too early to make definitive predictions about the future. At this stage, the prevailing condition is one of navigating the balance between available opportunities and potential risks.
| Click here to download: >> Academic Paper: The Fall of Assad in Syria and the Palestine Issue: Implications and Prospects … Sameh Singer (24 pages, 1.6 MB) |
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